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01 Dec 2006 04:46 pm

Two Months

That's now Charles Krauthammer's timeline for the Maliki government to prove it is more than just a front for al-Sadr. But he gives the Hadley stay-the-course strategy some short-term cover:

We should ... make a last effort to change the composition of the government and assemble a new one composed of those — Kurds, moderate Sunnis, secular Shiites, and some of the religious Shiites — who might be capable of reaching a grand political settlement.

But he also concedes that the political culture in Iraq makes this a pipe-dream. What he doesn't concede is that the Bush administration's management of the war and its acquiescence to anarchy made the chance for a grand compromise in Iraq all but impossible. It's hard to do a deal with people who have been busily murdering your in-laws for three years with impunity. But then Charles pivots and seems to favor an even swifter withdrawal than many Democrats:

The U.S. should be giving Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki a clear ultimatum: If he does not come up with a political solution in two months or cede power to a new coalition that will, the U.S. will abandon the Green Zone, retire to its bases, move much of its personnel to Kurdistan where we are welcome and safe, and let the civil war take its course. Let the current Green Zone–protected Iraqi politicians who take their cue from Moqtada al-Sadr face the insurgency alone. That might concentrate their minds on either making a generous offer to the Sunnis or stepping aside for a new coalition that would.

Or they might just say: fine. See ya later. And then what do we do? I'm afraid Charles is relieving himself into a gale-force wind. Maliki has had many months to prove himself. And waiting some more merely adds to the chaos and actually weakens our leverage. But, hey, two months is not too bad. Maybe there is a realist-idealist compromise out there. Give Maliki two months, then withdraw to Kurdistan. Wait and see if anyone emerges from the slaughter who can deliver order. But don't be surprised if it's someone we really don't like.

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