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« November 19, 2006 - November 25, 2006 | Main | December 3, 2006 - December 9, 2006 » Saturday, December 2, 200602 Dec 2006 09:05 pm The Rumsfeld MemoThe Bush administration is leaking like a spigot right now. The latest is interesting because it gives a glimpse into the thinking of the man who ran the occupation for three years of failure. I find it significant that, in the memo, it doesn't even occur to Rumsfeld that the U.S. ever needed or needs more troops to succeed. His memo recommends a drastic reduction in U.S. goals in the country - "go minimalist." Minimalist is, of course, as good a description as any of his policy for the last three years as well. And he gives us a candid admission of his own miserable failure:
Even then, of course, he sees no connection between "what U.S. forces are currently doing" and himself, their defense secretary. But at least he sees the writing in the sand:
Meanwhile, blame, blame, blame: blame every other government agency; blame the Iraqis; blame the country; blame the soldiers. And, of course: never take responsibility. Same old Don. But here are, to my mind, his main proposals:
So he was favoring a drastic reduction in troops and goals before he quit. (Why he couldn't have secured the Iranian and Syrian borders in, say, 2003, is another matter.) So the Bush strategy of Full Steam Ahead is undermined again. Here's a mischievous thought. What if the two most recent leaks - the Hadley Memo and the Rumsfeld Memo - came from the same source? What if they were designed to kill any attempt by Bush and Cheney to pretend things are okay, that Maliki is viable, and that a revamped effort can work? And what if the leaker were a man who just got fired and who's skilled at bureaucratic payback? Just musing. (Photo: Haraz Ghanbari/AP.) 02 Dec 2006 07:37 pm Denialists Dig InBoth National Review and the Weekly Standard aim for the Baker-Hamilton Group this week. But when you examine what the Kristol-Kagan team sees as the alternative to a gradual retreat from the South and Anbar into Kurdistan, you can't help wondering how serious they really are. Money quote:
How much higher would make a difference? At this point, close to 50,000 to 100,000 extra troops to halt the centrifugal force of societal disintegration in Iraq. Does the Weekly Standard seriously believe that is either politically or militarily possible with the urgency necessary? Of course not. Would, say, another 20,000 troops work in a pitched battle with Sadrite forces to retake parts of Baghdad? Unlikely - and with massive casualties probably prompting an uprising in the South. Anbar is all but gone. The South is a battleground for various Shiite militias and sending U.S. troops in to police the conflict is madness. But even if you reduced troops in the South and West, and focused on 20,000 more troops just for Baghdad, it's a stretch. As even Fred Kagan acknowledges:
We need at least 50,000 NOW. The only way to do that is sending untrained and ill-prepared or exhausted forces into a combat zone as chaotic and as opaque and as deadly as urban warfare in Baghdad. it would mean re-taking Baghdad three years after we did the first time, with far fewer advantages. And the massive surge in U.S. casualties it would mean would provoke massive opposition at home. If Rumsfeld and Cheney and Bush had done this three years ago, it might have had a chance. But they were too arrogant to do what was obviously needed when it mattered, and the window of opportunity is over. To ask for such a radical re-upping of the ante now - after the American public's patience has been exhausted and the Iraqi population has been massacred and thereby embittered on a large scale - is simply a non-starter. The attempt to belittle the efforts of Baker-Hamilton is therefore pure positioning. In Margaret Thatcher's phrase, there is tragically no alternative to some sort of retrenchment and retreat right now. I agree we need an effort to expand the military by several divisions. That was Al Gore's position in 2000, by the way, the candidate the Weekly Standard hounded as insane and weak. It was Kerry's position in 2004, another candidate the WS smeared as Jane Fonda in drag. Maybe a period of retrenchment and rebuilding of US forces could mean a new offensive in a year or so. But the idea that it can be accomplished swiftly enough now to make a difference in a "country" that has already disintegrated into Hobbesian hell is pure fantasy and Bill Kristol and Bob Kagan must know it. There is a mood on the right at this moment that is not entirely rational. They are lashing out at the people who can rescue them from the folly of the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld policy in Iraq. They are viciously attacking those who have had the temerity to expain why they lost the last election. And they are throwing the vilest of epithets at James Baker. Please. This is not 1991. They are as graceless in defeat now as they were hubristic in premature victory three years ago. Or to put it more precisely, they are exactly what National Review accuses the Baker-Hamilton Commission of being: "driven by their own internal dynamics rather than by any connection to the real world." It's over, guys. Your beloved Bush administration botched this so badly it's irrecoverable. You enabled them. You never fully took them on when it would have counted - and you trashed those of us who did. You knew this before the 2004 election and still cynically played the anti-Kerry card for all it was worth, telling yourselves you could sway Rummy after the election. Well, you couldn't and you didn't. Your policy was sabotaged by a defense secretary who never believed in it and by a president too weak and out-of-it to rein him in. Get over yourselves and recognize that this dream has died. And we have to fight the nightmare we now face rather than pretend your dream is still even on life-support. That's the patriotic responsibility at this point. And no, I'm not impugning your patriotism. I'm asking you to place it before your shattered dreams. 02 Dec 2006 07:00 pm Blogging DrunkA reader asks:
Well, I have now posted an email obviously composed while drunk. The answer - honestly - is no. The Still, writing round the clock means that you really do write while your life is going on. If you're human, you have moods. Normally a writer can disguise this a little, waiting until he or she feels better or cheerier before publishing or writing a piece. But not on a blog. The writing follows your actual life like a shadow. This means, of course, that there are some things I have posted over six years of daily blogging that I wish I hadn't. There are things I also haven't said that I should have. I have blogged angry or exhausted or depressed or giddy. I have blogged after fighting with my boyfriend; I have blogged with a beagle baying in the background; I have blogged in airports and trains and many, many Starbucks. I've blogged on Xanax and on protease inhibitors - but I swear I haven't blogged drunk. But I'm sure, for some readers, it seems like I do on a regular basis. 02 Dec 2006 05:50 pm A Pariah's TriumphJon Rauch pays tribute to a civil rights legend. 02 Dec 2006 01:50 pm Freedom RiverAn animated gem, narrated by Orson Welles, on the need for vigilance in protecting our precious liberties. Its message has rarely been as timely. YouTube is so great. 02 Dec 2006 12:31 pm Living Till You DieA reader writes:
Another writes:
Live till you die. Be able to say: "I was alive when I died." 02 Dec 2006 09:13 am The View From Your WindowMelbourne, Australia, 10.15 am. Friday, December 1, 200601 Dec 2006 09:07 pm LitvinenkoTracing the path of the poisoned Russian. 01 Dec 2006 08:52 pm MiraclesFor Aaron. On World AIDS Day. 01 Dec 2006 07:40 pm LevinA reader writes:
01 Dec 2006 07:18 pm The Minimum WageA sane, smart argument against raising it - from Greg Mankiw. 01 Dec 2006 07:10 pm The Mortgage DeductionSome readers have asked if I favor its abolition. I sure do. That's probably why I'm a blogger and not a politician. 01 Dec 2006 06:56 pm The View From Your WindowJefferson City, Missouri, 10.30 this morning. 01 Dec 2006 06:54 pm Small Town BoyA reader writes:
Can I just say this to my straight readers: when you think of gay people, and the "gay agenda," please think of this guy as well, will you? He went through all that, found a husband and committed to him for 26 years - and the Republicans now tell him that his committed relationship is a a threat to the family and to civilization. In my view, someone who endured that and committed to a relationship for almost three decades should at least be given the same civil rights as Pamela Anderson and Kid Rock. Anything else adds insult to injury. 01 Dec 2006 06:15 pm "Dear Jim And Chuck"David Kuo writes an open letter to two leaders of the Christianist right. 01 Dec 2006 05:01 pm Bush's Game PlanA reader writes:
If this is an accurate assessment of the president's motives, he really is a danger to the republic and a disgrace to his office. But I suspect that he has already also rationalized it in his head as the statesmanlike option. He's blind even to his own pride. (Photo from yesterday in Kirkuk by Marwan Ibrahim for AFP/Getty.) 01 Dec 2006 04:46 pm Two MonthsThat's now Charles Krauthammer's timeline for the Maliki government to prove it is more than just a front for al-Sadr. But he gives the Hadley stay-the-course strategy some short-term cover:
But he also concedes that the political culture in Iraq makes this a pipe-dream. What he doesn't concede is that the Bush administration's management of the war and its acquiescence to anarchy made the chance for a grand compromise in Iraq all but impossible. It's hard to do a deal with people who have been busily murdering your in-laws for three years with impunity. But then Charles pivots and seems to favor an even swifter withdrawal than many Democrats:
Or they might just say: fine. See ya later. And then what do we do? I'm afraid Charles is relieving himself into a gale-force wind. Maliki has had many months to prove himself. And waiting some more merely adds to the chaos and actually weakens our leverage. But, hey, two months is not too bad. Maybe there is a realist-idealist compromise out there. Give Maliki two months, then withdraw to Kurdistan. Wait and see if anyone emerges from the slaughter who can deliver order. But don't be surprised if it's someone we really don't like. 01 Dec 2006 03:50 pm Quote for the Day II
The poor theocons. They don't have anyone bigoted enough to support in 2008. 01 Dec 2006 02:18 pm TodayI'm not big on p.r. stunts like World AIDS Day. I remember my old friend Patrick once saying he would die of red ribbons before he died of AIDS. But he died of AIDS. He was 31. In many parts of the world today, 31 is an achievement for people with HIV. Please give to HIV/AIDS charities, support research, defuse stigma (remove the federal travel ban on HIV-positive foreigners!), and work for better diagnosis and treatment. I'd say that Africa is indeed a valid priority. But many African-Americans in American cities are no better off than some people with HIV in Africa. Charity begins at home. And stigma sometimes has to be conquered before charity is even possible. But know this also if you are caught in this web: HIV need not be the end of your life. This is my 13th year of living with it. And I've never felt as alive. If you have this virus, face it, own it, beat it. It can be done. And there is great spiritual blessing to be found in such fear and pain if you pray hard enough. 01 Dec 2006 02:04 pm Blaming Americans FirstThe new meme from the right: the American people - not president Bush - lost the war in Iraq. Mort Kondracke peddles the line, and I have to agree with Josh Marshall that it is a sickening piece of denialist drivel. As Josh puts it:
Remember: on Fox News, Mort is the liberal. 01 Dec 2006 01:48 pm Barney vs BillCongressman Frank gives Mr O'Reilly a taste of his own medicine. And Fox News Channel, for good measure. Yay! I should say, however, I agree with O'Reilly on this, and disagree with my friend, Barney. I'm against progressive taxation and in favor of a flat tax, an end to all tax shelters (except charity), abolition of corporate welfare, and an end to agricultural subsidies. Just to scramble things up, I also favor a raise in the minimum wage. I didn't used to. But I've been persuaded by the evidence that the benefits outweigh the costs, and that its worth has been deeply eroded in the recent past. The plight of the working poor in a globalized economy deserves addressing. I'm not sure whether this policy blend means I'm a liberal or a conservative on tax issues (although it will tick off some libertarians). At this point, I dont really care about the label. I do think we should talk about fundamental reform of an inefficient, overly-complex and unfair tax system. A shelter-free flat tax might actually succeed in increasing economic efficiency and the amount of tax the very rich actually pay. Why not put it on the table? 01 Dec 2006 01:28 pm Hindu UndiesA reader adds to our discussion of religious underwear:
Above is a 19th Century depiction of Lord Shiva in a Kaupina. More details here. 01 Dec 2006 12:21 pm The Trouble With PotA reader hits the nail on the head:
This is the nub of the issue, I think. Sometimes, you hear attempts at justifying the ban on pot that point to marinol, a THC-based drug that allegedly helps nausea. They're for that, if necessary. And they much prefer it to marijuana, even though smoked or vaporized THC is much more effective. Why? Because marinol doesn't provide pleasure. And pleasure, even harmless pleasure, is evil and must be prevented. Once you allow people to enjoy life, there's no end to the dangers. Unless, of course, pleasure is backed up by vast industries rendering hefty taxes, like tobacco and alcohol. Then it's fine. For my part, I find the attempt to ban any naturally growing plant to be an attack on reality, and a denial of some of the most basic freedoms. I guess that's why today's GOP is so in favor of it. 01 Dec 2006 10:44 am Quote for the Day"I don't think any sitting president of the United States is a lame duck when it comes to foreign policy. There's too much power in the presidency, and the interests of our country are too great. If the president reaches out to us in the Democratic Party and really tries to work together, he has a chance to have a legacy here that could be important for our nation and, obviously, for him personally. I've offered to be helpful to Condoleezza Rice. I've called her. I hope we can all work together, but we've got to be tougher in our approach. I believe personally -- and I've said this publicly -- that you have to set a date for the expectation of when the Iraqis will take over their responsibility. And if you don't get tough and have those kinds of benchmarks, then they have an excuse to avoid it altogether," - Senator John Kerry on CNN. 01 Dec 2006 12:27 am Six MonthsThat's Maliki's timetable for taking over security from the U.S. Whatever president Bush says or does, whatever James Baker says or does, that seems to me the actual timetable. If Maliki tells the U.S. to leave in June 2007, what will Bush do? He said today:
So he's got six months. Not even ten. (Photo of Western Baghdad yesterday by Mohammed Ameen/Reuters.) 01 Dec 2006 12:12 am Sero-Sorting, Ctd.A reader makes some good points:
Thursday, November 30, 200630 Nov 2006 11:13 pm PricelessFrom the NYT:
At least one of them is sane. 30 Nov 2006 10:05 pm Best '80s Video NomineeIf you were gay and young in the 1980s, the pop music was a form of emancipation and revelation. Early PSBs, Erasure and Bronski Beat captured the breakthrough. Many of us as teens lived in small towns and yearned for the big city. And no music video spoke to our lives as powerfully as "Smalltown Boy." Even now, it chokes me up. The video is a record of the beginnings of a revolution. You can feel it coming. Click here to see the other entries...30 Nov 2006 09:31 pm Sero-Sorting: The DataWhy has San Francisco been so successful in bringing down HIV transmission rates? That's a good question for public health officials. Many now believe it is because of "sero-sorting." This is a technical term for sex between people of the same sero-status. So HIV-positive men stick to their own and vice-versa. In those contexts, using condoms is not as essential to curbing the epidemic. So check out this blog-post from Michael Petrelis, and one of the slides from a recent San Francisco Department of Public Health study: You'll notice an alarming increase in syphilis, but relatively stable rates of HIV transmission. The syphilis is not good news, obviously. But it suggests a silver lining: a lot of sex going on without condoms, yet without any spike in HIV rates. That's almost certainly because most of the people who get syphilis already have HIV. This isn't good for people with HIV (but syphilis can be treated effectively if detected). But the pattern does seem to be keeping HIV within the boundaries of the existing HIV-positive population. And that's good news for the uninfected. 30 Nov 2006 07:58 pm Conservative Civil War WatchNRO's Schmittian blogger, Mark Levin, attacks Chester Finn's article ... on NRO. More fights, please. They're a sign of health. 30 Nov 2006 07:30 pm On Fabulous CatholicismA reader makes an obvious point:
My rage continues. But it is humanly impossible, thank God, to feel it for ever. And so I try and make the best of it. 30 Nov 2006 06:52 pm Obama vs ClintonThe game's on. 30 Nov 2006 06:25 pm The Feds vs the SickPeople talk about the immorality of the government not funding experimental embryonic stem cell research to cure or treat certain diseases. And yet we already have a drug that requires no elaborate production, has no bad side-effects, that actually cures serious illness and helps the sick - and the federal government doesn't just not fund this; it bans anyone from using it, and throws sick people in jail for it. This policy is despicable; it's immoral; and it's a scandal that marijuana is not available for any sick person it could help. Here's riveting, intelligent first-person testimony from a medical marijuana user for 35 years. It saved his life. He testified in Michigan yesterday. How dare the government ban this substance? 30 Nov 2006 05:57 pm Vive La ResistanceChester Finn calls it like it is - in National Review! The times they are a-changing. Money quote:
30 Nov 2006 05:37 pm Marriage In South AfricaEquality formally arrived today. 30 Nov 2006 05:36 pm The Bushite War SpinJosh nails it:
I thought Republican denialism could not survive the last election and the undeniable facts on the ground in Iraq. Wrong. They're still spinning - into the worst of all worlds. 30 Nov 2006 05:01 pm Putin's Nuclear War?Now former Russian PM Gaidar, another Putin foe, is sick - possibly from some kind of poison. Polonium again? Has Putin launched a micro-nuclear war against his opposition? 30 Nov 2006 04:27 pm Polonium For DummiesA useful, if scary, primer. 30 Nov 2006 04:07 pm Just Enough Troops To LoseMy preference is for a draw-down of troops in Shiite and Sunni Arab areas of Iraq, a redeployment to Kurdistan where they like us and whence we can keep an eye on any egregious terrorist activities in Anbar, and a much bigger force presence in Baghdad to prevent the capital from imploding. If the Shiite militias want to fight it out for control of Southern Iraq, fine. At least then we may have a victor we can actually talk to, instead the mellifluous Maliki. But - surprise! - the Bush administration is likely to do what it has long done: pick the worst of both worlds. We won't get the advantage of a clean or decisive break from the past, and we won't send enough troops to Baghdad:
So no real attempt to gain control of Baghdad. Have we even found the captured US soldier yet? Or has he been abandoned for good? Meanwhile, we'll keep talking pointlessly to the "right guy," Maliki. Why? To save this president's face. I don't believe any American soldier's life is worth sacrificing for one deluded man's self-esteem, do you? (Photo: Brooks Kraft/Corbis for Time.) 30 Nov 2006 03:33 pm The Russian DangerHere's a quote worth pondering:
If Putin ordered the hit, it means we have a head-of-state prepared to use nuclear material to kill enemies, and spread it globally. If someone in the Russian nuclear network did it without Putin's permission, we have an even bigger problem on our hands. Here we were worried that Saddam could hand off nuclear material to rogue actors. And we didn't think of Putin. 30 Nov 2006 02:27 pm BloggeryProfessor Bainbridge adjudicates a blog-war; and one blogger gets parodied. This is what free speech looks like. 30 Nov 2006 01:22 pm Pro-Gay RomneyHere's a quote for K-Lo:
Barney Frank? Nah. That's Mitt Romney, running for
Here's a simple test: can a Republican candidate in 2008 repeat Romney's words of 1994: that he respects "all people regardless of their race, creed, or sexual orientation." Bush has never been able to say those two words: "sexual orientation". Romney has. Will he ever say them again? Let's keep an open mind, shall we? (Photo: Associated Press.) 30 Nov 2006 12:12 pm The View From Your WindowBaton Rouge, Louisiana, 9.45 am. Santa had a rough night. 30 Nov 2006 11:08 am Email of the DayA reader writes:
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