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27 Sep 2007 01:47 pm

Can She Be Stopped?

Most conservatives think not, Ross included. For these reasons:

The anti-Hillary share of the primary vote is shaping up to be right around forty percent, which in a divided field simply isn't anywhere near enough to derail a candidate with Hillary's institutional advantages and deep reserves of support.

Deep? How about "shallow"? Those most interested in the Dem race, as shown in donations and volunteers, are evenly split, with Obama retaining an edge. My suspicion is that a lot of Hillary support in the polls is mainly core Democrats, many of whom are picking her as a place-holder. Many have not examined Obama closely; and haven't focused yet. Tom Bevan reminds us of the fact that in 2004, the entire race shifted in the last two weeks before Iowa. It easily can again. Matt is biding his time. Noam reaches into his lower colon for this analysis:

If you pressed me, I'd say she has something like a 55-60 percent chance of winning, to Obama's 20-25 percent and Edwards's 15-20. A 40-45 percent chance of someone other than Hillary is, by definition, hardly a lock.

And what about the Biden "surge"? About as effective in the long run as Petraeus', I'd suggest. My own rash prediction (which I reserve the right to withdraw at any moment) is that 2008 will be for the Republicans what 2004 was for the Democrats. At the last minute, as the primary voting approaches, Republicans may rush back to McCain, after realizing their front-runner, Rudy, is just plain nuts.

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