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01 Dec 2007 01:25 pm

Is Clinton Collapsing In New Hampshire?

The new Rasmussen poll can't be encouraging for her. The trend is looking brutal:

Clinton’s seven-point advantage is down from a ten-point lead in early November. In October, Clinton held a sixteen-point advantage over Obama. A month earlier, Clinton was ahead by twenty-three percentage points.

Opinion Dynamics sees the same:

A FOX News poll of likely New Hampshire Democratic voters finds that Clinton has the support of 30 percent followed by Obama at 23 percent. Edwards comes in third with 17 percent, Richardson receives the support of 12 percent.

Now imagine if Obama wins Iowa. New Hampshire happens very shortly thereafter. Independents can vote in either primary. I've always thought that Obama is an obvious New Hampshire candidate: an insurgent, a straight-talker, with far more independent appeal than Clinton. If Iowa and New Hampshire fall to him, black voters in South Carolina could realize he's viable and flock from Clinton. If that happens, Mrs Inevitable is in big trouble. (I'd add that an Obama surge in New Hamsphire among Independents could finish off McCain - because, unlike 2000, they won't be voting in the Republican primary.)

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