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04 Feb 2008 04:49 pm

Obama And California

A reader writes:

Regarding your recent expectations-setting post about Clinton's lead in absentee ballots: the recent California Field Poll (considered the best in the state by many), Obama is now running dead even with Hillary Clinton on mail-in voters-- which they assert as 43% of all votes cast--32% to 31% in Obama's favor. According to their poll however,  Hillary leads precinct voters (57% of all votes cast, according to Field Poll) 40% to 31%. I think this is spurious, however, as I believe  DTS (commonly known as "independent") voter turnout may be higher than than expected (13% of all voters, according to them). And, funny thing, Obama is beating Hillary in this category by a whopping 54% to 32%.

This is also a race between two Californias, the familiar North/South dynamic. Hillary wins LA (29% of the state) 42% to 34%, while the SF Bay Area (26% of the state) goes Obama 41% to 31%.

I'm a precinct captain in San Francisco.

The energy on our side here is fantastic; the volunteers I see everyday and voters I've spoken with represent an incredible microcosm of the population as a whole. I cannot give you much more than a limited sampling based on my own data, but expect Obama to win the Bay big, perhaps bigger than even the above poll shows. We may not be able to eke a win out of California, but it's going to be closer than anyone imagined even 3-4 days ago. We may even pull this one out, doing what was, until recently, widely regarded as close to impossible.

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