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13 Mar 2008 01:24 pm
Could She Ever Win The Popular Vote?
The logic behind this seems inescapable to me:
For the record, Senator Obama came out of the Mississippi primary with an advantage of 99,000 votes over Senator Clinton, more than I had predicted based on his edge in Alabama. That puts his margin in the nationwide popular vote -- by a measure that includes Florida but not Michigan -- at more than 500,000.
As I noted yesterday, it will take a colossal victory, almost 60%, for Clinton to get a 200,000 vote edge out of Pennsylvania. And if she does that, there is no plausible scheme under which she could pick up the remaining 300,000 votes to gain even the dubious moral claim of an edge in the popular vote.
The racial stuff is a sign of desperation. The Clintons have to find a way to destroy Obama in the next month or so or his claim on the nomination will be democratically irresistible. Obama needs to chill and fight fairly on. It's his to lose - unless they get into his head, and everyone else's, with the kind of emotional hoopla that Ferraro represents. Eyes on the prize, guys.
And I'm not just sure about that. I'm HIV-positive.
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