Expectations

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21 Apr 2008 09:41 am

Some perspective on Pennsylvania:

Best case scenario for Obama is 54-46. Worst case scenario is 58-42. Split the difference and call it 56-44. And, quite frankly, that's optimistic given the media's attempts to Swiftboat Obama every single day for the past two weeks.

More here:

"Popular vote matters,'' says Steve Grossman, a marketing executive and one of Clinton's top fundraisers. "If there is an opportunity for her to pick up enough popular votes, that is a powerful calling card to the superdelegates to say the will of the people is a split decision.''

To earn that split decision, though, Clinton would need a 25-point victory in Pennsylvania, plus 20-point wins in later contests in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico. Even that scenario assumes Clinton, 60, would break even in Indiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana and Oregon -- a prospect that's not at all certain.

538 predicts a 16 point Clinton win, based on undecideds. I'm sticking with my view that she needs double digits in Pennsylvania to stay in the race. Then May 6 looms large. The Obamaites who have long predicted an end on May 7 may well be proven right.

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