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25 Apr 2008 12:38 pm

White Ethnics Or Independents?

In some ways, that's the electoral question for Democratic super-delegates. The Clintons have managed to create something like the dynamic of previous red-blue general elections within the Democratic base itself. But that makes the base of their support white working class ethnics - the Reagan Democrats. But how would those voters lean if asked to pick between McCain and Clinton? Surely a Scots-Irish veteran hero is more competitive with them than Ms Wellesley. But in the other key swing group - independents - Obama and McCain are much more evenly matched. Moreover, Obama brings a massive advantage among the young and African-Americans and among Republican-leaning well-off independents. Hard to dispute this:

The congressional Democratic leaders don't draw the same conclusion from Pennsylvania and earlier contests that many observers think they do: that Obama's candidacy is fatally flawed because he has as yet been largely unable to win the votes of working class whites.

They point out something that has been largely overlooked in all the talk: The Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries were closed primaries. One key congressional Democrat says, "Yes, he doesn't do really well with a big part of the Democratic base, but she doesn't do well with independents, who will be critical to success in November."

Minnesota, Virginia, Colorado: these states may be where the real battle will lie.

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