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15 May 2008 03:36 pm

Polling Marriage In California

The Field Poll's last measurement was in 2007:

The Field poll questions have remained the same during the six surveys analyzed here. In 1985, only 30% of those polled supported same sex marriage. This increased to 38% in 1997, and the average for surveys in 2003-2006 showed support by 43%.

While only 25% of those born before 1940 are in support, that number has grown by 5% over these years. Those born in the 1940's are supportive at 40%, also a gain of 5%. Similar 7 and 8% increases are found for those born in the 1950's and 1960's, reaching above the 40% threshold. Those born in the 1970's and 1980's are in support by 51% and 58%.

There is no question what the future will be like. The question is whether the court has catalyzed it. The good news is that the Obama candidacy will doubtless increase the number of younger voters in California; the bad news for marriage equality is that will increase the number of African-American voters. Maybe the court's invocation of the anti-miscegenation precedent will help. But we have a big task on our hands - a $20 million minimum commitment. The prize is immeasurable: the establishment of equality in the most populous state of the union.

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