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15 Aug 2008 12:17 pm
Is Ukraine Next?
Sanity from Yglesias:
The reality is that Russia has no actual ability to move from
Tblisi to Kiev. Georgia is tiny, poor, and geographically located so as
to make it difficult for the West to provide it with any practical
support. Ukraine has 10 times Georgia's population, 20 times its
economic output, and extensive land borders with countries firmly in
the Western orbit. The practical impossibility of conquering Ukraine,
not American threats, is what will keep the Russians out of Kiev.
Meanwhile, it turns out that, contrary to the fears of the hysterics,
Russia isn't even going to Tblisi today, much less Ukraine tomorrow or
Estonia the day after that. Vladimir Putin, unlike the leader of the
United States, is apparently shrewd enough to recognize that military
occupations of foreign territories have high costs and scarce benefits.
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