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28 Aug 2008 05:38 pm

Proposition 8 Update

Some good news in a new California poll (PDF here) for those who want to support gay couples in stable relationships:

Proposition 8, which would amend the state constitution to eliminate same-sex marriage, is favored by 40 percent and opposed by 54 percent of the state’s likely voters.  Democratic (66%) and independent likely voters (59%) are against it, and Republican likely voters are in favor (60%).  The last time voters decided this issue—in 2000—they approved a ban on same-sex marriages by a wide margin (61% yes, 39% no). 

This is an issue on which the right has lost the center. In general, propositions need heavy majorities in the summer polling to stand a chance in the fall. But there's a worrying enthusiasm gap:

A majority of likely voters (57%) in favor of Proposition 8 say it  is a very important issue to them, while less than half (44%) of those opposed to the measure consider  it a very important issue. “It’s early in the campaign season, and in the end, the vote on this measure, like the other two, could be hard to predict,” says Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO.  “Overall views on gay marriage have not budged in a year.  Californians who plan to vote for Proposition 8 appear to hold that view with greater intensity than the opposition -- which means they are very motivated to vote.”   

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