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17 Sep 2008 03:04 pm
Chill Out
Yes, Obama now has a narrow lead in a few daily tracking polls. We should wait and see how this plays at the state level:
(Diageo, Rasmussen, Gallup, Research 2000) currently give about a 3-point swing toward Obama compared with McCain’s post-convention peak last week. However, it’s not clear what this means for the race. Just as McCain’s bounce was disproportionately concentrated in red states, this “unbounce” might also not be evenly distributed. We won’t know until next week.
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