Nate Silver studies the Prop 8 polling and labels it a toss-up:
I'd peg the 'no' side as about a 55/45 favorite, but not more than that.
Memo to the gays: wake up. The most depressing aspect in the gay community has been the apathy of so many, as well as the energy and determination of so few. So many straight people seem to be doing more for this issue than many gay people. That's unacceptable. It's perfectly legitimate to expose the LDS campaign against civil rights; but the Mormons are working the system. The right response is to work it back. Donate here. But better still: call your family and friends in California and tell them why this matters. If you live there, get organized. Canvass; campaign; volunteer; spread the word on the web. This is our Gettysburg. And we're losing it.