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01 Nov 2008 09:10 pm
Pennsylvania
McCain has been doing better there, especially in the West of the state - surprise!. Silver:
The Pennslyvania polls
have probably tightened by more than one point, although it is
important to note that the four polls that show the state in the mid-
single digits (Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon, ARG and Strategic Vision) have
all had Republican leans so far this cycle. Pennsylvania is still an
extreme long shot for John McCain -- Obama is more likely to win
Arizona than McCain the Keystone -- just not quite the long-shot that
it had looked like a couple of days ago.
That's worth absorbing as a statistical likelihood:
Obama is more likely to win
Arizona than McCain the Keystone.
You can see a graph of all the Pennsylvania polls here.
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