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12 Nov 2008 09:49 am

Prop 8 Myths

Nate Silver examines several readings of the vote, one of which I advanced:

Now, it's true that if new voters had voted against Prop 8 at the same rates that they voted for Obama, the measure probably would have failed. But that does not mean that the new voters were harmful on balance -- they were helpful on balance. If California's electorate had been the same as it was in 2004, Prop 8 would have passed by a wider margin...

At the end of the day, Prop 8's passage was more a generational matter than a racial one.

If nobody over the age of 65 had voted, Prop 8 would have failed by a point or two. It appears that the generational splits may be larger within minority communities than among whites, although the data on this is sketchy.

For the record, I'm for protesting, but not for litigating this. We lost. We will win. Our first priority should be defending existing marriages in the law. Then: how about focusing on a new initiative in California getting rid of Prop 8? In 2000, marriage equality was denied by 61 percent; by 2008, that was down to 52. By 2012, we win. Let's make the arguments, reach our aggressively to minority voters, get out of the HRC-style closet, and win.

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