The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

Saturday, May 31, 2008

31 May 2008 07:29 pm

Kamarck's Prescience

Garance digs up a nugget from a DNC meeting last March:

Our ultimate control is, in fact, seating the delegation. So if a state decides that they are more vested in their own system, and they'll worry about getting seated later, okay, there's not much the party can do about that, except kick them out of the convention. And then I think the party would go through the following question: Is the bad publicity back home worth not seating them at the convention?

Okay, and, guess what? We would seat them at the convention. I mean, unless maybe they're Wyoming or a state that is so wildly Republican that we don't care, and we don't think we could ever win it.

31 May 2008 07:10 pm

Ickes' Threat

The sociopath's option:

"Mrs. Clinton has reserved her right to take this to the credentials committee."

But others seem to suggest that an informal deal to seat all of them after Obama gets the nomination might be feasible. That would be far too reasonable for the Clintons, it seems to me.

31 May 2008 06:41 pm

Relax And Enjoy Your Video Game

Tom Chatfield looks at the evidence for cultural collapse:

So far, the dire predictions many have made about the "death" of traditional narratives and imaginative thought at the hands of video games have at best equivocal evidence to support them. Television and cinema may be suffering, economically, at the hands of interactive media. But literacy standards and book sales have failed to nosedive, and both books and radio are happily expanding into an age that increasingly looks like it will be anything but lived on-screen. Young people still enjoy sport, going out and listening to music. They like playing games with their friends, and using the internet to keep in touch and arrange meetings rather than to isolate themselves. And most research—including a recent $1.5m study funded by the US government—suggests that even pre-teens are not in the habit of blurring game and real worlds. This finding chimes with an obvious truth: that a large proportion of "problem behaviours" in relation to any medium or substance exist for resolutely old-fashioned reasons—lack of education, parental attention, security, support and experience.

31 May 2008 06:37 pm

If You're Tuning In Now

Eric Pianin has a helpful summary of the day's Democratic contortions.

31 May 2008 06:22 pm

Obama Quits Trinity

A rough day. And the Clintons will not relent. They'd rather destroy the party than hand it to Obama.

31 May 2008 06:21 pm

She Said It

Pelosi:

"The American people have to know the Democratic Party can run its own delegate selection process ... if they want to govern America."

We're discovering for the umpteenth time that the Democrats obviously can't govern themselves. This absurd circus in DC today really does remind me of their inability to understand rules, and congenital refusal to apply them.

31 May 2008 06:05 pm

Among McCain's Strongest Supporters

Clintonites. And check this one out. If these are typical of Hillary delegates, it's going to be one hell of a convention.

31 May 2008 06:01 pm

Chaos

Still no resolution at the RBC. Days like these remind some of us why we could never be Democrats. Ambers:

6:00: Even the cognoscenti are being kept in the dark. Florida Dem Party chair Karen Thurman is visiting the press corps. She has no special info about the delay in resuming public deliberations.

31 May 2008 05:33 pm

Nige Blogs

Blogging is a natural form for the educated, wry Brit who knows above all else how to conduct an amusing conversation. And Nigeness is very funny, very British and very smart. I wondered how long it would take to turn Britain into an island of bloggers. After a late start, they seem to be catching up fast.

31 May 2008 05:11 pm

Absolute Hot

Is there an opposite to absolute zero?

(Hat tip: Tyler Cowen)

31 May 2008 04:15 pm

The View From Your Window

Alton Bay, New Hampshire, 11.05 am.

31 May 2008 04:03 pm

Among The Clintonites

A report from outside the Marriott:

"Would you rather have a president who had an affair [Bill Clinton] or one who was a murderer [Obama]?" Jeannie, the Greensboro Democrat, asks a fellow in a floppy Tilley hat and Hillary buttons. "That's a good point," he replies.

31 May 2008 03:33 pm

Quote For The Day II

"My momma taught me to play by the rules and respect those rules. My mother taught me, and I'm sure your mother taught you, that when you decide change the rules, middle of the game, end of the game, that is referred to as cheatin'," - Donna Brazile.

31 May 2008 02:57 pm

Dubya The Great?

From the current issue, Ross's take on Bush's legacy:

Bush’s hopes for vindication depend on the Middle East’s following a gradual, Fukuyaman track toward free markets, democratic government, and the “end of history.” And just as crucially, they depend on American troops’ staying in Iraq for as long as it takes for that to happen. If these events come to pass—if the Iraq of 2038 or so is stable, democratic, and at peace with its neighbors, and if American troops have maintained a constant presence in the country—no one should be surprised to hear hawkish liberals as well as conservatives taking up the idea that George W. Bush deserves a great deal of the credit.

It seems to me that if a policy can only be judged from the vantage point of thirty years into the future, the possibility of any sane or rational judgment of it as we decide is impossible. Such time-lines make such decisions close to meaningless, and remove all proximate responsibility for those making them. If Iraq does end up as Ross and I hope, I see no reason to congratulate George W. Bush for botching the start of it.

And by the way:

The Americans want to continue to have “a free hand” to arrest Iraqis and carry out military operations, and they want authority for more than 50 long-term military bases, Mr. Adeeb said. He said that he doubted that a security pact along the lines sought by the Americans would pass in the Iraqi Parliament.

50 long-term military bases. How is that not empire?

(Photo: Hadim Izban/AFP/Getty)

31 May 2008 02:54 pm

Quote For The Day

"We all misspeak sometimes. I've done it myself. So on such a basic, factual error, you'd think that Senator McCain would just admit that he made a mistake and move on. But he couldn't do that. Instead, he dug in. And the disturbing thing is that we've seen this movie before -- a leader who pursues the wrong course, who is unwilling to change course, who ignores the evidence. Now, just like George Bush, John McCain refused to admit that he made a mistake. And that's exactly the kind of leadership that we've had through more than five years of fighting a war that should've never been authorized, and should've never been waged.

We don't need more leaders who can't admit they've made a mistake, even when it's about something as fundamental as how many young Americans are serving in harm's way." - Barack Obama, today.

McCain said that the US presence in Iraq was now at pre-surge levels. It's a pretty serious error:

"I can look you in the eye and tell you it's succeeding. We have drawn down to pre-surge levels. Basra, Mosul and now Sadr City are quiet."

DIsmissing it as a verb tense triviality is Clintonian. In the foreign policy debate, Obama and McCain have basically fought each other to a draw these past few weeks. Given McCain's serious domestic flaws, that's good news for the Democrat.

31 May 2008 02:44 pm

The Clintons' Chutzpah, Ctd

The latest:

2:25: Blanchard: "You must NOT turn you back on our loyal state." Blanchard: the candidates taking their names off the ballot "was a knowing, willing decision. It doesn't make the election flawed. It makes a flawed strategy."

31 May 2008 02:39 pm

Dealing With Clinton And Ahmadinejad

A reader writes:

People wonder how Obama would deal with a sociopathic enemy in Iran or elsewhere - I think we'll have a good idea over the next couple weeks. How he's handling the Clinton campaign right now is the best evidence.

Continue reading "Dealing With Clinton And Ahmadinejad" »

31 May 2008 02:38 pm

Tics

I Am Neurotic is a blog where readers share their neuroses. An example:

I can’t stand multiple bumps close together. Corn on the cob, multiple pimples, popcorn ceilings… anything with multiple bumps. They seriously freak me out.

Another:

My pens must remain untouched by other human hands. I will happily let someone use my pen if the occasion arises, but it is straight in the garbage afterwards or ‘keep it.’ If it’s a pen I’ve become particularly attached to, an awkward ‘sorry, I can’t lend it to you and I can’t explain why; I just can’t.’ It’s not a germ or hygiene issue, but some deep violation of the symbiotic relationship between a man and his pen.

(Hat tip: Tyler Cowen)

31 May 2008 01:44 pm

Iraqi Refugees

Packer reports some good news:

...something new and potentially important is happening in Baghdad: the American Embassy has begun to hear cases inside the Green Zone, so that Iraqis don’t have to give up everything before they can be considered for resettlement. It’s called in-country processing, a rare though not unheard-of thing in American history. In March, the cases of thirty Iraqis working at the embassy, along with fifty-two family members, were heard, and the first of them will arrive here this week. The numbers should increase fairly significantly in the coming months. Under the terms of a bill that is one of Senator Ted Kennedy’s many proud achievements, in-country processing in Iraq is now U.S. policy.

31 May 2008 12:58 pm

69 - 59

A Michigan deal? Oh wait:

12:59: There is almost universal skepticism on the committee about Brewer's proposal.

31 May 2008 12:18 pm

Face Of The Day

Harold Ickes yawns during a Democratic National Committee (DNC) meeting at the Marriott Park Wardman hotel May 31, 2008 in Washington DC. By Mark Wilson/Getty Images.

31 May 2008 12:12 pm

Obama Endorses Florida Compromise

Ambers:

12:02 p.m: Wexler is yelling. "We must find a way...to resolve this situation so that Florida may participate in this historic nominating process that will soon come to a close." ... Says the rules provide for a reduction in the NUMBER of pledged delegates... Wexler announces Obama campaign's support for Ausman petition... -- says it would award Clinton a net 19 delegates... "Sen. Obama should be commended for his willingness to offer this extraordinary concession.... "

31 May 2008 12:10 pm

How Obama Won

Playing by the rules - and being extremely smart. Imagine if the Iraq war had been planned by Obama's campaign managers. You think we would have had no post-invasion strategy?

31 May 2008 12:06 pm

Disenfranchising Voters

How the Clintons do it.

31 May 2008 12:03 pm

Yglesias Award Nominee

"George W. Bush brought most of his White House team with him from Texas. Except for Karl Rove, these Texans were a strikingly inadequate bunch. Harriet Miers, Alberto Gonzalez, Karen Hughes, Al Hawkins, Andy Card (the last not a Texan, but a lifelong Bush family retainer) — they were more like characters from The Office than the sort of people one would expect to find at the supreme height of government in the world’s most powerful nation.

McClellan, too, started in Bush’s governor’s office, and if he never belonged to the innermost circle of power, he nonetheless gained closer proximity than would be available to almost anyone who did not first serve in Texas. That early team was recruited with one paramount consideration in mind: loyalty. Theoretically, it should be possible to combine loyalty with talent. But that did not happen often with the Bush team," - David Frum, National Post.

31 May 2008 11:58 am

Her Supporters Saved The Best For Last

Gayer?

31 May 2008 11:58 am

"Prodded Animals" II

Blumenthal defends American polling.

31 May 2008 11:34 am

Live-Blogging The RBC

In an act of superhuman professionalism, Ambers is taking notes. More here. It got off to a good start:

09:38: A woman, dressed in a pink pants suit, parks herself in one of the press filing rooms and refuses to leave. Security hired by the hotel is called. They surrounded the woman; a 20 minute, unproductive discussion ensues. The woman claims she was escorted into the press room by a DNC official; the official, conveniently enough, cannot be found. The woman stood up and immediately fell to the ground, laying prostrate in protest. "Adam nine, we need SOD up to the McKinnon room," one of the hotel security agents radioed. The woman looked up at the curious members of the press corps. "Sorry to disturb you.," she said. As I type, a half dozen police officers and an equal number of security guards are trying to escort her out.

No, it wasn't Hillary.

31 May 2008 11:32 am

Clinton's Test

Publius thinks Clinton's reaction to the RBC decision today will be more important than the decision itself:

In the days ahead, the Clintons have the power either to unite the party going into the fall, or to leave a lasting, poisonous, and potentially-fatal schism. At this point, it’s not clear what path they’ll choose.

And Bill has conceded the obvious compromise:

31 May 2008 10:27 am

Putting On Ayers

Boomer sanity from Kinsley.

31 May 2008 09:14 am

Profiling Pelosi

Michelle Cottle argues that Clinton has made Pelosi seem tough:

...the individual most responsible for Pelosi's newly fearsome stature is Hillary Clinton. It was, after all, the letter from angry Hillary donors that overnight cast Pelosi as a defender of the Democratic grassroots. Progressives in particular--many of whom spent much of last year trashing Pelosi's leadership as timid and pathetic-- celebrated her refusal to be cowed by arrogant party fat cats. Likewise, reports that pro-Clinton movie mogul Harvey Weinstein had tried to compel Pelosi to back his plan for a revote in Florida and Michigan (charges that Weinstein has denied) raised hackles around the speaker's office and burnished the image of Pelosi as a bulwark against an out-of-control Clinton machine.

You mean resisting Clinton bullying isn't proof you're a misogynist?

Friday, May 30, 2008

30 May 2008 09:38 pm

Face Of The Day

Artist Tone Holmen's sculpture of a polar bear, made from plastic bags, is displayed at the Recycled Sculpture Show at London Zoo on May 29, 2008 in England. Twenty sculptors have used everyday waste and scrap to create works of art that will remain on show until September 5, 2008. By Peter McDiarmid/Getty Images.

30 May 2008 08:30 pm

Breaking News

Leon Wieseltier is sick of pontificating. But not entirely! Money quote:

And mawkishly I must admit also that the catastrophes in Burma and China have had the distant consequence of shutting me up: I cannot quite work myself into a consideration of those children from a policy standpoint, though I am grateful that others will do so, and punditry is no place for the agonies of philosophy.

You're welcome.

30 May 2008 07:15 pm

Is Beard-Growing A Civil Right?

Police officers in Houston go to court:

Four police officers filed a federal civil rights lawsuit in November claiming the [beard ban] policy is discriminatory. The officers say the prohibition on beards and goatees is unfair for men who suffer a skin condition that reacts negatively to shaving. The condition can cause severe irritation, rashes and ingrown hair.

30 May 2008 06:41 pm

The Iranian Puzzle

Justin Logan:

"Beyond the presidency, the more important position of Supreme Leader will change hands eventually, and probably sooner rather than later. All of these changes could bear on U.S.-Iranian relations, for better or worse. To the extent that the threat environment in Iran is viewed as high, it is more likely that Iranians will select hardline leaders. If the temperature should be decreased, there is a greater likelihood that the worst of the Iranian leadership will find itself out of power. This is only one reason among many that U.S. leaders should calm down the rhetoric on Iran and make clear that talks—without preconditions—are an option."

30 May 2008 05:32 pm

Federalism And Marriage

A primer.

30 May 2008 05:24 pm

Sexism, Sexism, Sexism

Geraldine Ferraro has an op-ed today in The Boston Globe. It's rife with twisted arguments. One section:

...a group of women - from corporate executives to academics to members of the media - have requested that the Shorenstein Center at Harvard University and others conduct a study, which we will pay for if necessary, to determine three things.

First, whether either the Clinton or Obama campaign engaged in sexism and racism; second, whether the media treated Clinton fairly or unfairly; and third whether certain members of the media crossed an ethical line when they changed the definition of journalist from reporter and commentator to strategist and promoter of a candidate. And if they did to suggest ethical guidelines which the industry might adopt.

Well, actually, the Shorenstein Center released a report on the presidential primary yesterday. A few paragraphs:

Continue reading "Sexism, Sexism, Sexism" »

30 May 2008 04:52 pm

The Slippery Slope And Anxiety

Rick Hills has a series of posts on gay marriage and the slippery slope argument. Eric Posner responds:

The slippery slope argument has become shorthand for the view that if we try to make sure that all our social and legal conventions are morally justified, we will end up with no conventions or (what is almost the same thing) in a state of permanent transition between different conventions, which would be worse than tolerating existing conventions that are unjust. This argument is, at the extreme, an objection to any time of reform, and so cannot always carry the day, but it is not an argument that one can refute simply by showing that the proposed new convention is morally superior to the old one. But the reason this argument persists in the same-sex-marriage debate is that it is impossible to point out any concrete harms from recognizing same-sex marriage, and thus the only argument left is this anxiety about the arbitrariness of conventions.

30 May 2008 04:20 pm

Mental Health Break

From Montaigne to Sagan: a skeptic's take on our fate:

30 May 2008 04:07 pm

McClellan and Rove

I haven't commented much on Scott McClellan's book. But it is not necessary to bemoan his possible financial incentives to dump on Bush to see the core truth that Peggy Noonan grasps:

His primary target is Karl Rove, whose role he says was "political manipulation, plain and simple." He criticizes as destructive the 50-plus-1 strategy that focused on retaining power through appeals to the base at the expense of a larger approach to the nation. He blames Mr. Rove for sundering the brief post-9/11 bipartisan entente when he went before an open Republican National Committee meeting in Austin, four months after 9/11, and said the GOP would make the war on terror the top issue to win the Senate and keep the House in the 2002 campaign. By the spring the Democratic Party and the media were slamming back with charges the administration had been warned before 9/11 of terrorist plans and done nothing. That war has continued ever since.

Rove has been one of the most lethal poisons ever injected into the political bloodstream.

30 May 2008 03:37 pm

There'll Always Be An England

A festival trader surveys the flooded main arena at the Sunrise Festival on May 30, 2008 in Yeovil, England. The festival was cancelled after flash flooding yesterday. Yes, it was called the Sunrise Festival.

By Matt Cardy/Getty Images.

30 May 2008 03:18 pm

Al Qaeda Near Defeat?

Here's hoping:

The sense of shifting tides in the terrorism fight is shared by a number of terrorism experts, though some caution that it is too early to tell whether the gains are permanent. Some credit Hayden and other U.S. intelligence leaders for going on the offensive against al-Qaeda in the area along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, where the tempo of Predator strikes has dramatically increased from previous years.

But analysts say the United States has caught some breaks in the past year, benefiting from improved conditions in Iraq, as well as strategic blunders by al-Qaeda that have cut into its support base.[…]On Iraq, he said he is encouraged not only by U.S. success against al-Qaeda’s affiliates there, but also by what he described as the steadily rising competence of the Iraqi military and a growing popular antipathy toward jihadism. “Despite this ’cause célebrè’ phenomenon, fundamentally no one really liked al-Qaeda’s vision of the future,” Hayden said. As a result, the insurgency is viewed locally as “more and more a war of al-Qaeda against Iraqis,” he said.

Pete Wehner infers:

We do have the capacity to influence things in some arenas–and Iraq is, right now, a central battlefield in the war against jihadists. To undo what we have put in place would be unwise, reckless, and–given events of the last year–indefensible as well.

I'm not sure this formulation works. It seems true to me at this point that a careful, staged withdrawal from Iraq now seems much less likely to provoke a catastrophe than we once feared. But figuring out precisely how to sustain the good trends in Iraq without a permanent open-ended presence will require finesse and prudence. Sustaining in a straight line what we have been doing does not necessarily follow. Both Obama and McCain will have to find a path between indefinite occupation and precipitous withdrawal. But it does seem to me that al Qaeda's self-defeating nihilism, a more effective Iraqi army, some smart maneuvers by Maliki and the knowledge of a looming end to the US occupation at its current levels have led to a better prospect than almost anyone imagined two years ago. Obama has more adjustment to do on this than McCain at this point.

Know hope.

30 May 2008 03:02 pm

Befuddling Hitch

The Vatican will celebrate Darwin next year.

30 May 2008 02:42 pm

"We Can't Have Any Acquittals" Watch

The latest from the Bush administration's detainee farce.

30 May 2008 02:24 pm

Politics Is Like Baseball

Poblano reveals his identity:

My real name is Nate Silver and my principal occupation has been as a writer, analyst and partner at a sports media company called Baseball Prospectus. What we do over there and what I'm doing over here are really quite similar. Both baseball and politics are data-driven industries. But a lot of the time, that data might be used badly. In baseball, that may mean looking at a statistic like batting average when things like on-base percentage and slugging percentage are far more correlated with winning ballgames. In politics, that might mean cherry-picking a certain polling result or weaving together a narrative that isn't supported by the demographic evidence.

I had dinner last night with an old friend, Comment Central's Danny Finklestein. Danny writes a football (soccer) column as well as political blog. And he regaled me over Larb Gai about the statistical training sports journalism requires. It comes in handy. It was mathematics that persuaded him that Clinton was doomed a while back. My math, as you all know, is terrible. But I can link!

30 May 2008 02:03 pm

As an obsessive Golden Girls fan, and a generally fem gay man, I have to say that your reader's simplistic formulation about Barack and Hillary falls prey to the sad gender-based fallacies that still plague the gay community. I would agree with him only to the extent that some gays (butch and fem) still insist on playing the victim, and I can see an argument that they might gravitate towards Hillary. But you certainly can't peg that type of mentality to any sort of cultural gender construction reliably. My large group of gay friends runs the gamut from defensively butch to conspicuously fem, and there is no correlation between that behavior and who they support.

Continue reading "Obama and Clinton: Butch and Fem? Ctd" »