The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan

Saturday, January 19, 2008

19 Jan 2008 10:17 pm

The Parties Stagger On

I'm really chuffed about McCain. But his squeaker in South Carolina makes it both more likely that he will be the nominee and less likely that he will unite the GOP enthusiastically behind him. He may have to put Huckabee on the ticket at this rate, which will make him uncomfortable and the economic right apoplectic. A very narrow and divisive McCain victory wouldn't be as bad for the GOP as a narrow and divisive Romney victory, but it's not great news either.

Similarly, the longer the Democratic race goes on, the likelier it appears that Clinton could well win the nomination in a way almost designed to maximally divide and demoralize her own party - and raise her own national negatives to stratospheric levels. It would mean a Clinton candidacy in the fall that had actively alienated independents and repelled Republicans, while undermining a key source of Democratic support - African-Americans.

If both parties commit slow suicide, does either win in the end?

(Photo: Stephen Morton/Getty.)

19 Jan 2008 10:10 pm

The Base Deals With McCain

They're not happy, if Levin is any indicator:

The problem for McCain is his record (which some of his supporters want us to downplay, or to limit to certain issues most important to them, or claim what matters is that he can beat the Democrat, or whatever). That's not going to work right now. Even if this website were to close down tonight and never reappear, McCain's positions on some major issues simply won't go down with a lot of conservatives.

19 Jan 2008 10:08 pm

After Nevada

Crowley:

I see a disaster averted for Hillary--but with Obama alive and well. In the unlikely event of a Hillary victory in South Carolina, Obama could face a crisis of his own. More likely, we are headed to February 5 and quite possibly beyond in what looks like a long war of attrition.

I'm not sure what to make of Nevada as such. It was another close race, with delegates closely divvied up. Clinton won in a campaign run by the son of Nevada's Senator and Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid. Big whup. But it's a win nonetheless, and momentum matters, and Obama failed to bring enough new voters to the polls to overcome Clinton's base support. I don't think it means that much unless it's a sign that Latino voters won't back a black candidate. If that's true, several states that Obama might have won will go to Clinton. Meanwhile, we have a red-faced former president to look forward to:

Mark on your calendar Jan. 25 for an outburst by Bill Clinton somewhere in South Carolina. He has launched a tirade the day before each of his wife's victories in Nevada and New Hampshire, claiming the process was unfairly stacked against her. If this keeps up, he's going to require a stretcher by the last primary in Oregon come May.

19 Jan 2008 09:55 pm

McCain Squeaks Through

33 - 30 as of this hour ... and Fred prepares to quit? Ambers gives seven reasons for a McCain revival, including exquisite timing:

(6) Romney's decision to pull out at the last minute...Giuliani's decision to pull out earlier...

This makes it close to impossible for Rudy to pull this one out. Ron Paul beat him again! But Huckabee's strong showing means he's not out of it yet. If Fred leaves, Huckabee could even gain some Southern steam. It's a Huckabee-McCain-Romney race now.

19 Jan 2008 07:36 pm

Obama Nevada Spin

Heh:

As Clinton Communications Director Howard Wolfson said, "This is a race for delegates…It is not a battle for individual states. As David knows, we are well past the time when any state will have a disproportionate influence on the nominating process."

19 Jan 2008 07:33 pm

South Carolina Exit Polls

They're showing a close race between McCain and Huckabee. Some interesting data here:

Evangelicals - Mike Huckabee 41%, John McCain 27%, Fred Thompson 14%, Mitt Romney 11%

Evangelicals may have made up more than half the voters. Still too close to call.

19 Jan 2008 07:27 pm

Paul 3, Giuliani 1

The man Fox News dismisses has now beaten Fox News' unofficial candidate in three out of four early contests. Just saying .... You will notice that Hewitt counts Giuliani's one delegate and omits Paul's 6.

19 Jan 2008 07:21 pm

The Clintons Won Ugly?

Plouffe complains. Here's a first-hand account of alleged Clinton campaign sleaze. But Obama got 13 delegates anyway - one more than the Clintons.

19 Jan 2008 06:27 pm

Face Of The Day

Poll manager Renell Brown checks for a name on the voter registration list at the Penn Center voting precinct during the South Carolina Republican Primary January 19, 2008 in St. Helena Island, South Carolina. Voters took to the polls Saturday in South Carolina's Republican presidential primary. By Stephen Morton/Getty Images.

19 Jan 2008 05:44 pm

Nevada's Delegates

A 51 - 45 win is good news for Clinton. But it doesn't translate into a big advantage in delegates. There are 33 from Nevada:

Sixteen of the 25 delegates are allocated proportionally to presidential candidates based on the support for the candidates in each of the state’s three Congressional districts. Nine delegates are allocated to candidates based on the support among all of the delegates attending the convention. The remaining eight unpledged delegates are chosen from party leaders.

19 Jan 2008 05:23 pm

The Latino-Black Battle

A Hispanic Luntz focus-group member predicts that Latinos will not vote for Obama. Why? A black woman wants to know. She gets no answer. But she knew the answer already. The Clintons' greater emphasis on Obama's race probably helped solidify Latino discomfort with a black candidate. But it was there already.

19 Jan 2008 05:14 pm

The Unions In Nevada

I didn't know this:

Clinton had more than twice the number of Nevada unions supporting her as either Obama or John Edwards.

Edwards - in a union-dominated caucus - got 3.74 percent. Ouch.

19 Jan 2008 05:05 pm

The Clintons And African-Americans

Fascinating data from Nevada: just as Hispanics went overwhelmingly - 64 - 24 - for Clinton, blacks went more overwhelmingly - 80 - 16 - for Obama. I'd say this is a vindication of the Clintons' racial polarization strategy: force Obama to be the "black" candidate and rely on some white and Latino discomfort to build up their own vote margins. Not a good strategy for the South, but great for the West and California. The Clintons have done the math.

19 Jan 2008 04:52 pm

Clintons Win Nevada With Women, Hispanics

There's the usual generational split, of course:

Obama won the support of voters under age 45, while Clinton won among older voters. Voters under age 45 broke for Obama over Clinton 48 percent to 34 percent, while those over 45 chose Clinton over Obama 54 percent to 33 percent.

But the Latino vote contains grim news for Obama:

Hispanics made up 14 percent of Democratic caucus-goers in Nevada today, and they overwhelmingly supported Clinton. She got 64 percent support from Hispanics, while Obama got 24 percent and Edwards got 9 percent.

That will make a bigger difference in California. It was still close, though: 51 to 45, and completely in line with the last polls.

(Photo: Mario Tama/Getty.)

19 Jan 2008 04:46 pm

Barack Hussein Obama

Listen to a robocall in Nevada. Ben Smith comments here.

19 Jan 2008 04:39 pm

A Not-So-Gay Disease

Newsweek rightly questions the media's hysterical story line on drug-resistant staph infections as a new "gay disease" caused by "gay sex". It isn't and it isn't. Chris Crain and Mike Petrelis comment. Some key data points here. Why weren't the press full of stories of MRSA being the new military plague - in danger of breaking out into the "general population"? It makes as much as sense as the "new HIV" line.

19 Jan 2008 04:28 pm

The Mormon Question

25 percent of Republican Nevada caucus-goers were Mormon and 94 percent of them voted for Romney, according to an exit poll. Hmmm. Still, it's a win. In the end, as an expert like Bill Schneider reminds us, the guy with the most delegates wins.

19 Jan 2008 02:34 pm

Iraq's New Flag

Not exactly a Betsy Ross story. Iraqi Konfused Kid blames the Kurds for the whole thing:

the only people who are actively seeking the retirement of the old flag and who hate it with all its gut are, unsurprisingly, the secessionist-dreaming Kurds, who are still dreaming their little chauvinistic Pan-Kurdish pipe dreams while we the Arabs, the ones who messed around with those Pan things and failed a century before them, can now enjoy this black comedy as they follow exactly the footsteps of our miserable fuck-ups.

Self-awareness is a wonderful thing.

19 Jan 2008 01:57 pm

Romney's Ahead ...

Nevada updates here. It's snowing in South Carolina.

19 Jan 2008 01:54 pm

Bill Clinton Is Angry

Check out the tone:

There is this whole business of the new politics. Well I got a taste of the new politics today. We need a new politics where we all love each other. You’ve heard all that. There’s a radio ad up in the northern part of Nevada telling Republicans that they ought to just register as Democrats for a day so they can beat Hillary and go out and be Republicans next week and vote in the primary. Doesn’t sound like the new politics to me...

I will say it again – they think they're better than you.

He only sounds like this when he's losing the argument. But the Clintons can still win the nomination.

19 Jan 2008 01:47 pm

Like A Bat Out Of New York

Here's a nice time-waster: a stroll through all the many art installations - stained glass windows, mosaics, murals - that dot the New York City subway system. The winged mammal is at 81st and Central Park.

19 Jan 2008 01:07 pm

Huckabee In SC

A last minute surge?

19 Jan 2008 12:42 pm

Point Taken

From Las Vegas:

Obama ended by calling Clinton’s comments “tricks” and said voters will stop listening to politicians because of them. At the end of the event, a man yelled out to Obama that he will be a better president than George Bush. Obama responded, “So would you!”

19 Jan 2008 11:26 am

50 Ways To Leave Your Cell-Phone

You can throw it away without fomenting mass murder in Africa. It just takes a little thought.

19 Jan 2008 10:54 am

The View From Your Window

Bratislava, Slovakia, 1.15 pm.

19 Jan 2008 10:24 am

American Contraband

A photographic look at the food confiscated in a 48 hour period from travelers entering the US through JFK airport.

19 Jan 2008 10:18 am

Limerickapalooza Ctd.

Two more:

Is John Edwards completely aware
that his rhetoric really does scare
most sensible voters
and General Motors.
And how'd we forget 'bout the hair?!

There once were two houses, Bush-Clinton
20 years in power they were sittin’
Though democracy in name
They’ve re-shaped our game
Co-monarchy would be much more fittin’

19 Jan 2008 09:25 am

Amazing Troops

After that stunning Afghanistan shot, a reader sends in some pictures taken by his son-in-law, who was a major and a Blackhawk pilot for the Army’s Special Forces in the Middle East:

More pics after the jump.

Continue reading "Amazing Troops" »

19 Jan 2008 08:28 am

Rescuing Boston's City Hall

It's one of the ugliest buildings on the planet. Mercifully, there are pans to humanize it.

19 Jan 2008 08:16 am

Quote For The Day

"The good news is it's a spectacular country. We've been around for 230 years in spite of human nature, because that's what the Constitution is all about. It's saying, of course everyone's gonna try and take control. Of course they're gonna subvert every law that's supposed to keep them in line. Of course the president is gonna want to be imperial, of course Congress is gonna want to become obstructionist, of course the judges are gonna be activist. Duh. They figured this out in 1787 and drew up a few sheets of paper that have kept the country in line. It's a great place to live," - David Mamet, on America.

19 Jan 2008 07:51 am

Are Ringtones Unislamic?

A good reason to set your phone to vibrate.

Friday, January 18, 2008

18 Jan 2008 09:16 pm

More Campaign Limericks

Over a hundred entries so far:

There once was a man named Romney,
Whose hair was an election anomaly:
His opponents were balding,
His attack ads were scalding,
And he spoke with robotic autonomy.

They searched for the next Reagan in vain.
The support for hizzoner did wane,
Fred's attempt didn't take,
And Mitt is so fake,
They shrugged and said, "Maybe McCain?"

More here, here, and here. The limerick that started it all is here.

18 Jan 2008 07:44 pm

Gay Relationships, Straight Relationships

John Cloud writes with sometimes painful candor about the break-up of his seven-year relationship and explores the still-largely-unknown world of comparative studies of gay and straight marriages. There is so much we still don't know, and without the support of civil marriage, we're not dealing with apples and apples. But even now, there are some interesting findings:

Gottman, Levenson and their colleagues found that gays and lesbians who exhibit more tension during disagreements are more satisfied with their relationships than those who remain unruffled. For straight people, higher heart rates during squabbles were associated with lower relationship satisfaction. For gays and lesbians, it was just the opposite. Gays conduct their relationships as though they are acting out some cheesy pop song: You have to make my heart beat faster for me to love you. For gays, it is apathy that murders relationships, not tension. Straight people more often prefer a lento placidity.

18 Jan 2008 06:35 pm

Face Of The Day

Father Juan Manuel Villar touches the nose of a Carlino dog with an aspergillum while he blesses the dog during the feast of San Anton, the patron saint of animals, at the San Anton church on January 17, 2008 in the center of Madrid, Spain. San Anton is honored by many Catholic churches in Spain where thousands of animal lovers flock to their nearest place of worship to have their animals blessed. By Jasper Juinen/Getty Images.

18 Jan 2008 06:33 pm

Clinton Bashes Obama For Praising Reagan

The usual distortions of what Obama actually said. Maybe someone will point out this endorsement that she features on her website. Money quote:

Her list of favorite presidents - Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Lincoln, both Roosevelts, Truman, George H.W. Bush and Reagan - demonstrates how she thinks. As expected, Bill Clinton was also included on the aforementioned list.

Then this:

Hillary and I will always remember President Ronald Reagan for the way he personified the indomitable optimism of the American people, and for keeping America at the forefront of the fight for freedom for people everywhere…

Whatever works. I have no idea who is going to prevail in Nevada and South Carolina. But the Clintons are acting as if they think they could lose.

18 Jan 2008 06:12 pm

Derb Says Goodbye

Two moving posts about his dog here and here. My sympathies. Dusty just turned ten. Mercifully, she's as ornery as ever - and ever-so-slightly more affectionate than she used to be. Mellowed by marriage, as I've been. I can't imagine burying her. Losing a dog is a tough business - even for stone-hearted Tories like Derb.

18 Jan 2008 05:34 pm

Some Questions For Huckabee

Damian Lanigan:

We need to ask the ex-Governor a straight question: don't you think, at the very least, that the issue of consent is a major difference between adult homosexual relations and sex with animals? Does he know how difficult it is, for instance, to get a rabbit to go for a drink with you, let alone to persuade it to come back to your place for coffee and a parsnip? Has he tried hooking up in a petting zoo?

Continue reading "Some Questions For Huckabee" »

18 Jan 2008 05:20 pm

Campaign Limericks

Hey, it's Friday:

Fred Thompson was huffin’ and puffin’,
Like Reagan he said he’s a tough 'un.
They said “Fred you are...”
“like a bright shiny star.”
But the old goat amounted to nuffin’.

Ron Paul is a Doctor from Texas
who sees how the government vexes.
From the president’s lying
about FBI spying
to their “cover your asses” reflexes.

18 Jan 2008 04:59 pm

The Clintons' Race Problem

, Gay Rights"> , Race">

Chris Lehmann talks to Orlando Patterson among others about what this campaign has revealed about the Clintons and the race question:

"I've taken a lot of criticism from people saying I've not been sensitive enough." But the former president's stray "kid" reference "is a synonym," Patterson says, "for being 'uppity,' it's a way of saying 'who is he?' Throughout the history of America, there has been a history of young leaders, and for [Clinton] to say this in a context of promoting his wife in a very nepotistic way, it's very disappointing. He's charging a grown man of being uppity. There's a race--well, I wouldn't go so far as to say it's racist, but there's a condescension there."

The way the Clintons are treating black leaders is very reminiscent to me of the way they have long treated gay people. When I'm asked by readers about the source of my emotional hostility to the Clintons, a lot of it does indeed go back to how they treated the civil rights issues of the 1990s. In some ways, I preferred the outright hostility of some on the religious right to the condescension and manipulation of the Clintons and their apparatchiks. I've never been able to get that bad taste out of my mouth. Which is why I am not in any way surprised by the racial issues they are now embroiled in. They treated the gays this way first.

18 Jan 2008 04:55 pm

The Civil War In Four Minutes

This is cool:

18 Jan 2008 04:40 pm

Unionizing Bloggers?

Chris Mooney discusses the idea. But who's the boss in most cases? Hard to tell. The good news is: our traffic and influence seem to be growing, hence the interest in monetizing all this:

Tellingly, both The Huffington Post and Daily Kos were slightly ahead of The Economist's site--and considerably ahead of The New Yorker's. Even more tellingly, on Technorati's list of the hundred most-linked information sources, twenty-two were blogs.

18 Jan 2008 04:37 pm

Re-Designing The White House

, Politics">

Not a racist Colorado joke.

18 Jan 2008 04:26 pm

That Abortion Study

, Science"> , Sex">

If unwanted pregnancies drop by a larger proportion than abortions, is that a good thing? Drum:

Better access to contraception, better education, and better access to the morning after pill seem to have made a difference over time. For anyone who's pro-life but not anti-sex, that ought to be good news.

As someone who likes to think of himself as in favor of life and sex, I'd say it's a good thing on both counts.

18 Jan 2008 04:12 pm

Obama's Reagan Analogy

The bloggy left is unhappy. Arkades worries here. Rick Perlstein says Reagan was a bad, bad man.

18 Jan 2008 03:50 pm

The Kenya Effect

Will violence and disorder spread to its neighbors? The Vigilante Journalist, aka Anne Holmes, is live-blogging from Nairobi here. It's riveting, indispensable reporting. Money quote:

When I arrived in Kibera it was a virtual war zone. General service Units (GSU), or the Red Berets as they are often referred to, and Administrative Police (AP) were firing live rounds at will into a neighborhood of Kibera, injuring innocent bystanders, one of whom was in his home. They seemed rather to be enjoying themselves, displaying a kind of bloodthirstiness which I had not as yet witnessed.

She has some amazing photographs as well including the one above, with the caption:

A man by the name of Geoffry (last name unavailable) was shot in the neck as he was walking home from work and later died of his wounds in Kibera.

While you're there, hit her tip-jar.

18 Jan 2008 03:41 pm

In Defense Of Glen Johnson

, Romney">

I'm with Dan:

The reporter sitting on the floor putting actual, tough, reality-based questions to Romney is AP reporter Glen Johnson—and someone ought to pin a medal on him. Romney lied, Johnson called him on it. He didn't run off and find a Democrat or a rival for the GOP nomination to "dispute Romney's claim." He reacted the way any reporter—any person—ought to react when they're being lied to.

I really don't believe it's bias to call a candidate on a bald-faced lie. I wish the press corps would do it with the president.

18 Jan 2008 03:28 pm

God Bless America

Megan points me to these words of wisdom:

As for policy positions, as best I can tell, the Democrats want to give most of the southwest U.S. to Mexico, and invite Muslim terrorists to publicly behead everyone making more than a million dollars a year, except for Steven Spielberg and George Soros. Republicans, meanwhile, want to kick anyone with a Mexican-sounding name out of the U.S., and conquer the entire Middle East so that Halliburton will have work after it kills all the porpoises while drilling for oil off the U.S. coast, which will soon be just east of Kansas City, as a result of the Bush-Reagan-Hitler global warming conspiracy.

Both parties are convinced that government is exceptionally skilled at doing things they want more of, and entirely incompetent when it comes to things they don't like.

18 Jan 2008 03:11 pm

It Worked In Iowa

Here's an ad now popping up in South Carolina:

If he wins, you'll know why.

18 Jan 2008 03:03 pm

Nice Rhymin'

Keep 'em coming:

Ms. Clinton, the bitter old crone,
Thought Dem votes were all her’s alone.
But then came Barack,
Who was right on Iraq,
Now smears fly by speech, mail, and phone.

18 Jan 2008 02:57 pm

Campaign Ad Round-Up

, Romney">

Check out Romney's TV pitch in Florida; McCain's in South Carolina; Giuliani's in Florida; and Thompson's in South Carolina. From now on, the ads get more and more important.

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Friday, January 18, 2008

Andrew Sullivan

Dish Prep