My friends, we have reached a crisis, the first probably serious crisis internationally since the end of the Cold War. This is an act of aggression.
Not the invasion of Kuwait? Or the first Gulf War? Or the Afghan war? Or the second Iraq war? Or Darfur? Or Bosnia? Or 9/11? It's this kind of emotional hyperbole that should worry people about McCain in the White House. He's a drama queen on these issues. With a finger on the trigger.
The reality is that Russia has no actual ability to move from
Tblisi to Kiev. Georgia is tiny, poor, and geographically located so as
to make it difficult for the West to provide it with any practical
support. Ukraine has 10 times Georgia's population, 20 times its
economic output, and extensive land borders with countries firmly in
the Western orbit. The practical impossibility of conquering Ukraine,
not American threats, is what will keep the Russians out of Kiev.
Meanwhile, it turns out that, contrary to the fears of the hysterics,
Russia isn't even going to Tblisi today, much less Ukraine tomorrow or
Estonia the day after that. Vladimir Putin, unlike the leader of the
United States, is apparently shrewd enough to recognize that military
occupations of foreign territories have high costs and scarce benefits.
An interesting insight into how McCain sees things:
"I think that the pro-life position is one of the important aspects or fundamentals of the Republican Party. And I also feel that -- and I'm not trying to equivocate here -- that Americans want us to work together. You know, [former Pennsylvania Governor] Tom Ridge is one of the great leaders and he happens to be pro-choice. And I don't think that that would necessarily rule Tom Ridge out ... I think it's a fundamental tenet of our party to be pro-life but that does not mean we exclude people from our party that are pro-choice. We just have a -- albeit strong -- but just it's a disagreement. And I think Ridge is a great example of that. Far more so than [New York City Mayor Michael] Bloomberg, because Bloomberg is pro-gay rights, pro, you know, a number of other issues."
By what logic can gay rights be more significant an issue for a religious party like the GOP than abortion?
I keep imagining that one of one of the Kagans - perhaps one we haven't yet even heard of - will soon be advocating actual - oh, wait:
Having pulled back from Ossetia and Abkhazia, the Georgians can now
regroup and re-equip. They are in desperate need of two things: weapons
to kill tanks, and weapons to kill or deter aircraft and helicopters.
We can supply both. The Stinger missile, the bane of Russian Frontal
Aviation in Afghanistan, is still the most potent shoulder-fired weapon
around. It will cause Russian close support aircraft to keep their
distance, or to attack from higher altitude. Providing Georgia with
medium-range surface-to-air missiles which can be deployed from
Georgian territory proper will further push back their high-altitude
aircraft (e.g., Tu-22M Backfires )...
This is the best rebuttal to my own view that pushing NATO to the borders of the Black Sea and beyond is foolish over-reach. I don't think offering Georgia NATO membership is a wise move; I do think the West should support democratic polities in Ukraine, Georgia and the Baltic states. There is a balance to be struck between the West's obvious interest in getting Russian cooperation in the war on Jihadist terror and preventing Russian meddling in its near-abroad. There's a trade-off here. And allowing Russia its traditional sphere of influence may be much less of a headache than trying to police its every move and losing cooperation on such vital matters as securing loose nukes.
What worries me is that McCain's eagerness for more conflict in the world - pushing Russia and China into a corner - is not in the best interests of the United States. It may be moral; it may be exciting; it may provide the great national purpose McCain thinks we all need to feel. But it ignores the hard trade-offs involved, and perpetuates the whole with-us-or-against us bluster of the last eight years. We need more of that? More enemies? Less diplomacy? More conflict?
McCain isn't confident that conservative policies and personal
experience can win, given the ruinous state of the nation after eight
years of Bush. So he has made a fateful decision: he has personally
impugned Obama's patriotism and allows his surrogates to continue to do
that. By doing so, he has allied himself with those who smeared him,
his wife, his daughter Bridget, in 2000. Those tactics won George Bush
a primary--and a nomination. But they proved a form of slow-acting
spiritual poison, rotting the core of the Bush presidency. We'll see if
the public decides to acquiesce in sleaze in 2008, and what sort of
presidency--what sort of country--that will produce.
"In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition
of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military
industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced
power exists and will persist. ... We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties
or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an
alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the
huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful
methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together." -Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1961
"For some, we now realize, the Cold War was not about democratic values
versus totalitarianism, in the Kirkpatrick formulation. It was about
American hegemony against any rival power, totalitarian or not,
globally expansionist or not. The end of Communism was, for some, a
problem. It removed a key rationale for military power." -you, yesterday…
Surely this is exactly what Eisenhower was talking about.
Thank God, meanwhile, for all who do provide examples of successful marriage in the world. We're better for you.
Except for the gay couples who are already providing many examples of successful marriages, rearing kids many of whom would otherwise have no stable homes, and championing the idea in an age when so many trivialize it. These couples K-Lo wants divorced, stigmatized and barred any legal protections. In fact, she wanted to amend the Constitution itself to punish them.
The authors of the Left Behind series say Obama isn't the Anti-Christ.
"I've gotten a lot of questions the last few weeks asking if Obama is the antichrist," says novelist Jenkins. "I tell everyone that I don't think the antichrist will come out of politics, especially American politics."
"I can see by the language he uses why people think he could be the antichrist," adds LaHaye, "but from my reading of scripture, he doesn't meet the criteria. There is no indication in the Bible that the antichrist will be an American."
From Amy Silverman's hit job on McCain in the Phoenix's New Times:
That's the thing about covering John McCain. Someone always wants you to give him the benefit of the doubt. And there's usually a pretty good case for why he deserves it, though that doesn't mean he should be let off the hook completely.
Many of the claims in The Obama Nation – including allegations that Obama lied about when he stopped using cocaine and marijuana, and charges about his relationship with Islam and his participation in the congregation of Jeremiah Wright’s Trinity United Church of Christ – are factually inaccurate and have been disproved. But honesty, accuracy and transparency are besides the point, because, as Corsi told the New York Times, ‘The goal is to defeat Obama. I don’t want Obama to be in office’. This is an honest sentiment that has produced a great deal of dishonest ones.
At least we won't have Glenn Reynolds giving this stuff credit as he did the Swift Boat smears.
I've just finished "The Dark Side" - the second half of it more or less since 12 pm this afternoon. Last night, sitting in one of those cafes they stick on the sides of Barnes and Nobles, I almost broke down crying. Instead, I went to the poetry section and quietly read aloud a couple of Hektor's speeches in the Iliad -- something oddly reassuring about them to me.
Scattered throughout my copy of the book are prayers for forgiveness. That was all I kept thinking as I read. Normally, I'm angry about this. With this account, I only felt a deep, tremendous sadness.
I finished it a few hours ago, sitting on the rocks in front of Lake Michigan - it's the most peaceful place I know of in the Chicago area. Afterward, I watched the beginnings of tonight's moonrise and listened to Leonard Cohen sing "Democracy." By those final defiant stanzas I had this inexplicable feeling that we're going to muddle through this. And I remembered he'd written a song about 9/11 for his album Dear Heather -- a short, raspy, muzaked thing, like most of the album, but it closes by posing what was, I feel, the most prescient thing asked in any of the post-9/11 music or literature I've read/listened to:
"Did you go crazy, or did you report, on that day they wounded New York?"
If there's any comfort to be found in Mayer's account, or in any of the stories coming out about this administration's overreach, it's in the stories of those who didn't go crazy.
A Mexican supporter watches the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games women's preliminary beach volleyball match Norway vs. Mexico at Beijing's Chaoyang Park Beach Volleyball Ground on August 14, 2008. By Joe Klamar/AFP/Getty.
Looking at the impulse to intervene in Georgia ... and Iraq ... and Iran ... and Afghanistan ... and Burma ... and Darfur, and ... well, you get the idea. The Cold War may be over, but the forces propelling constant war and perpetual conflict are still in place. My attempt to look at the context for our current moment - and an account of my own shifts over the past few years toward non-interventionism - is here.
All the admirable reasons that John McCain is deeply exercised by the plight of the Georgians are reasons why he is not the right man at this point in history to lead the United States. My take here.
I think you downplay the important role that liberal interventionists have
played in fostering an imperial America. Remember that the prudence
demonstrated by Bush 41, who refused to dance on the Berlin Wall, was
repudiated by Clinton, who pushed NATO expansion down Russia's throat
even though the entire rationale for NATO had vanished. It was Clinton
that established the self-evidently hypocritical precedent that America
has the right to define its interests in Russia's near-abroad (i.e.
Kosovo) but that Russia had no similar entitlement if it contradicted
America's wishes.
In other words, liberals got the ball rolling here. I'd also note
that Obama has not only NOT repudiated this, he has echoed McCain's
call for Georgia in NATO. He is in no way offering a rebuke of the
imperial status quo. He is affirming it.
I fear his campaign is adrift, having lost the fire of his insurgency against the Bush years. But I agree with Rich Lowry that this ad is an effective and clear appeal to the middle class. He needs to emphasize more that his tax hikes will only hurt those at the upper end of the income scale and that his tax cuts are for the middle class. This is a Clintonian pitch (Bill, that is). It isn't enough, but it can't hurt:
A new book by Raymond Tallis analyzes the deeper meaning behind our most basic gestures, expressions and tics:
Oxford defines a harrumph as an ostentatious clearing of the throat,
expressing disapproval. Tallis says it's close to a suppressed bark,
typically triggered by a newspaper item about a fashion or trend the
harrumpher deplores. "Harrumphs are particularly associated with the
idea of a member of the Establishment, whose overweight body provides
the perfect instrument for manufacturing it," complete with jowls that
shake while the sound emerges...The harrumph probably deserves more space than Tallis gives it. Is it
dying out? Does it express social attitudes only of the old and cranky?
And hasn't the blogosphere given it a whole new lease on life?
Evidence, then, that most troops want out? Maybe! Except … the data doesn’t specify whether the donations came mostly from Iraq or were spread out around the globe, and interestingly, the one branch where McCain leads Obama in contributions is the one most likely to see the hardest action — the Corps. Beyond that, the would-be McCain soldier-donor has a hurdle to clear on his way to his checkbook that the Paul and Obama donor doesn’t. By kicking in to Maverick, he’s making it marginally more likely that he’ll continue to be deployed in the field and away from his family in the future. Even if he agrees with McCain’s foreign policy, thinks we ought to finish the job in Iraq, and is willing to continue serving bravely and well to that end, it’s asking a lot to ask him to pay for the privilege.
Jacob Grier defends tobacco and lashes out against over-zealous, misguided regulation:
"Tobacco is a wondrous plant, capable of relaxing us, stimulating us,
and offering a fantastic range of flavors. The times I've spent smoking
an occasional pipe or cigar are among my favorite memories of the past
few years, times of reflection, celebration, and deepening friendship.
I wouldn't give them up for anything."
And since I am not yet an American, I can drop the f-bomb.
Azerbaijan belongs to that strange region where the sort-of West meets the sort-of East and is another Balkan-style tinderbox with ethnic time bombs that tend to explode.
Azerbaijan has lots of oil, too, so it matters to the rest of the world
far more than its near absence in the media might suggest. It's
simultaneously being pulled toward Russia, the West, and the Islamic
world. No one knows where it will end up, but Russia's invasion of
Georgia next door likely will be a big factor.
If the political press corps were honest, they’d start every convention story with the finding that nothing important happened that day and that your attention is not needed.
I'm not going - again. I'm not a big fan of schmoozing with fellow hacks and can see it all much better from Cape Cod.
What we have to recognize is that
Russia is a (sorta) great power trying to do what great powers do. This
will involve plenty of jostling, shoving, pushing, and all the rest of
it. It won't always be pretty, particularly given the KGB-stained
nature of Russia's current leadership. On occasion, the U.S. will have
to shove back, and shove back very firmly. That said, to try using
what's going on in Georgia (as some seem inclined to do) as the
inspiration of some sort of revived Cold War is not the way to go.
Steve Clemons still thinks Obama picking Bayh is likely:
As I reported the other day, Evan Bayh is the favored candidate to find himself on Barack Obama's ticket. Obama will probably finalize his decision today or tomorrow and then announce his decision as he comes out of his Hawaii vacation.
I'm just passing on the latest I'm hearing -- that Sen. Joe Biden is moving up on the list of potential running mates for presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama. While Obama's heart may go towards Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine -- his head takes him to a more experienced pick, a Sen. Evan Bayh or Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
I also think that allowing Georgia to join NATO, under any circumstances that remotely resemble the present, would make people wonder: are the United States and the other NATO countries really willing to go to war to protect Georgia? And the reason it would make people wonder is that it is not, in fact, even the least bit clear that we would, still less that we should. And that means that admitting Georgia to NATO would badly damage NATO's status as a credible defensive alliance.
Steve Sailer wants to ban lobbyists such as Randy Scheunemann:
My view is that we should treat Americans who have been registered agents for foreign governments the way we treat mob lawyers -- as a necessary part of the system, but, in return for the money, they permanently disqualify themselves for important roles in government, other than maybe Mayor of Las Vegas. But nobody else seems to think that way.
I don't know about that, but WaPo's story on Georgia paying Scheunemann while he acted as a foreign policy advisor to McCain doesn't sit well. Rosa Brooks's take:
A lively exchange on Fox News. Sean Hannity's head explodes, which is always good television at the thought that the same standards applied to Democrats should apply to Republicans. The meltdown happens around the 3:20 mark. Hannity also says that the Vietnamese "did not break [McCain's] spirit." Actually, they did, using the enhanced interrogation techniques Hannity approves of when used by Americans. McCain attempted suicide and made a taped confession of crimes he didn't commit after torture was inflicted on him. The torture techniques included beating, stress positions, dietary manipulation, withholding of medical care and solitary confinement - all of which are now used by the Bush-run CIA and were used indiscriminately across all theaters of war by the US after 2001 on Bush's authorization.
McCain's confession, I might add, says nothing about McCain's integrity or character, just something about the evil of torture techniques that McCain then acquiesced to when practiced by the CIA in the Military Commissions Act of 2006.
I suspect that if Georgia’s democracy was one that had even the whiff of
Islamic nationalist tendencies, the response to the nationalist aggressions of
the non-Islamic authoritarians of Russia would be treated much differently.
Razib Khan profiles the boy wonder. I first discovered Reihan by email - as he peppered the Dish with comments and arguments in its earliest days. He is ferociously brilliant and culturally unhinged, a multiculti blend of Taz, Apu and Robin Williams after a long line of coke. I love him and am extremely grateful he whizzed blurrily into my life.
Although Russian defense spending has increased in recent years, analysts remained uncertain about the extent to which the Russian military had experienced genuine improvements in its operational capability given its poor performance in Chechnya, morale problems, and lack of actual combat experience. Russian leaders have now demonstrated that Moscow has both the capacity and the will to use the country's armed forces to advance Russia's security goals.
What were they talking about last July? Did Rove meet Saakashvili in Georgia? What has Scheuneman been promising Saakashvili for years - and what message was sent to Georgia after McCain won the nomination? Was Saakashvili goaded into goading Russia for campaign purposes?
These are all questions at this point. But given the record of Cheney and Rove of engineering foreign crises for domestic political purposes, they can't be dismissed out of hand. We could have simple miscommunication here between a supportive White House and a somewhat excitable Georgian leader. Or we could have something halfway between miscommunication and malevolence. With Rove, you can never be too sure.
Andrew Romano questions the extent of Republican support for Obama:
...are there enough rank-and-file Republicans whispering their support at Obama rallies to actually make a difference on Election Day? As I discovered from examination the last 18 months of head-to-head general election polls, the answer seems to be "no." In fact, John McCain's share of the Democratic vote has typically--and surprisingly--been larger than Obama's share of the Republican vote. In other words, it's not that the Rev. Jeremiah Wright scared the Obamacan masses off, as some pundits have theorized--it's that they never existed (in any unprecedented way) to begin with.
This is why my own favored term is Obamacons: conservatives with an uneasy relationship with the GOP who see in Obama some of the temperamental calm and foreign policy prudence they have missed these past few years.