Saturday, September 27, 2008

27 Sep 2008 07:04 pm

The 2012 GOP Nominee

Pethokoukis predicts he or she will have been against the bailout:

Newt Gingrich said voting for the bailout will break against candidates in 2010 and beyond when voters see how destructive it is to the economy. And that's the thing. While the bailout, if Paulson and Bernanke are to be believed, may prevent a financial meltdown, it will not by itself return America to prosperity. The labor market is clearly weakening, and is the last thing to turn around once an economy does regain momentum. So there's a good chance that a perturbed public, currently down on the bailout, will view it as an expensive flop by the time the midterm elections roll around. They will hold its supporters accountable.

27 Sep 2008 06:09 pm

Uribe '08

Reihan is fed up:

I’m really tired of Barack Obama and John McCain. Seriously. No more. I was telling my persuasive conservative friend the other day that I really wish this election pitted Vladimir Putin against Alvaro Uribe. Because let me tell you: I’m for Uribe all the way. Uribe ’08!

Continue reading "Uribe '08" »

27 Sep 2008 04:10 pm

Les Deux Exces Se Touchent

Ralph Nader has now adopted Mike Gravel's media strategy.

27 Sep 2008 03:42 pm

1960, 1980, 1992 ... 2008?

Fallows's final assessment:

When the details of this encounter fade, as they soon will, I think the debate as a whole will be seen as of a piece with Kennedy-Nixon in 1960, Reagan-Carter in 1980, and Clinton-Bush in 1992.

I'm with Jim. I have a feeling this was it. Fallows continues:

Continue reading "1960, 1980, 1992 ... 2008?" »

27 Sep 2008 03:33 pm

"The Most Bigoted Decision In National Electoral Politics"

Coates has a beaut of a post on Palin.

27 Sep 2008 03:04 pm

The View From Your Window

Dulwich, England, 7 am.

27 Sep 2008 02:43 pm

Palin Gag Of The Day

Jimmy Kimmel:

"John McCain showed up without running mate Sarah Palin, which is a shame because she actually has a lot of experience with financial matters. You know, she lives right next to a bank."

27 Sep 2008 02:30 pm

Another One Gets Off The Bus

Rich Lowry:

I've been swamped with other stuff, but just for the record: I thought Palin was dreadful. She obviously didn't have the reaction to the Charlie Gibson interview that I had hoped. She had better be better prepared for next week or she risks damaging her political brand forevermore.

27 Sep 2008 02:24 pm

Bruno!

Move over, Borat:

27 Sep 2008 02:07 pm

Thabo Mbeki Says Goodbye

Reihan is saddened by that state of affairs in South Africa:

As Nelson Mandela's deputy, Mbeki played a central role in shaping post-apartheid South Africa. Once regarded as a man of rare promise, he has been a failure, not least by the lofty standards he set for himself.

Continue reading "Thabo Mbeki Says Goodbye" »

27 Sep 2008 01:41 pm

McCain's Contempt For Obama

Larison gets it:

Maybe I am influenced by how poorly Obama used to do when he debated Clinton, but I thought he did so much better than he has before that it has to be scored as a win for him. McCain was more aggressive, no doubt, but it is my impression that it translated into contempt and condescension, which are the things that everyone has been saying that Biden has to avoid when he debates Palin. He used the word naive how many times? He was scolding him as if he were a school master, but it is far from clear in any of the exchanges that he knew more. Obama was not forceful enough, but he was so much more focused than he was earlier in the year. McCain came off, in my view, as a snide, bitter old man. His comments betrayed the sentiment of, “How dare you even think that you can compete with me.” This is what Clinton thought, and it destroyed her.

27 Sep 2008 01:32 pm

Got A Mortgage Problem?

A lot of Jeffrey Goldbergs are here to help.

27 Sep 2008 12:43 pm

Sure They Vetted Her

Ed Schultz:

Capitol Hill sources are telling me that senior McCain people are more than concerned about Palin.

The campaign has held a mock debate and a mock press conference; both are being described as “disastrous.” One senior McCain aide was quoted as saying, “What are we going to do?” The McCain people want to move this first debate to some later, undetermined date, possibly never. People on the inside are saying the Alaska Governor is “clueless.”

Larison thinks McCain wants a mulligan.

27 Sep 2008 12:37 pm

Obama And Debates And Identity

The one aspect of these events that many seem to ignore is the racial and gender dynamics. Obama's style against McCain was much tougher and crisper and more forceful than with Clinton. The reason, I think, is that Obama was canny enough not to fall into the Lazio trap with Clinton - with his only slip-up being the "you're likable enough" quip. With McCain, he could be more alpha male, as he was. But Obama is also a black man against a white man. So he must also be very careful not to get angry and to stay cool and calm. He has to do that to avoid the "angry black man" trap. But then he cannot afford to seem weak either. You realize how hard a balance that is for ninety minutes?

Obama has to walk through a racial minefield all the time.

Continue reading "Obama And Debates And Identity" »

27 Sep 2008 12:16 pm

Debate Ratings

Nielsen:

·      The combined overall household rating for last night's presidential debate, in 55 of the 56 local television markets where Nielsen maintains electronic TV meters, was 33.2.  (Local ratings for the Houston market are still unavailable due to the effects of Hurricane Ike.)

·      The St. Louis market had the largest TV audience, with a household rating of 52.1, while the Phoenix/Prescott market had the lowest household rating: 24.8.  (One rating point equals 1% of the total TV audience in a given market.)

National ratings for Friday night’s debate will be available from Nielsen on Monday.

The biggest audiences tended to come from the MidWest. Among critical political markets where ratings were very strong: St Louis, MO; Greensboro and Raleigh-Durham, NC; Columbus, OH; Norfolk and Richmond, VA; Denver, CO; Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Palm Beach, FL; Detroit, MI; Indianapolis, IN.

It will be interesting to see how the polling looks in those states in a couple of days. Whoever won that debate will have been doing it in front of some critical swing voters. (New Yorkers and Los Angelenos were among the least interested in the debate. But then it was Friday night in the big city, so I don't blame them.)

27 Sep 2008 12:03 pm

Our Blind Spot In Afghanistan?

Tom Johnson and M. Chris Mason have a very sharp article on Afghanistan in the current Atlantic. Money quote:

Politically and strategically, the most important level of governance in Afghanistan is neither national nor regional nor provincial. Afghan identity is rooted in the woleswali: the districts within each province that are typically home to a single clan or tribe. Historically, unrest has always bubbled up from this stratum-whether against Alexander, the Victorian British, or the Soviet Union. Yet the woleswali are last, not first, in U.S. military and political strategy.

Janine Davidson weighs in.

27 Sep 2008 11:55 am

"Horseshit": Correction

I've removed the original post of a little time ago because after listening to the clip about two dozen times, what sounded like McCain saying "horseshit" actually comes through as having a hard "c" at the front of it. My husband insists that McCain said "Course not." I think now my hubby's right, although it's very muffled. You can hear the moment at around the 4:30 mark in this video. I'm sorry for mis-hearing this. I've heard McCain say worse in my presence (and thought none the less of him for it) so it wasn't exactly bizarre.

Continue reading ""Horseshit": Correction" »

27 Sep 2008 11:49 am

Why Obama Won Big

Nate Silver is a must-read. This is a fascinating nugget:

The CBS poll of undecideds has more confirmatory detail. Obama went from a +18 on "understanding your needs and problems" before the debate to a +56 (!) afterward. And he went from a -9 on "prepared to be president" to a +21.

The more it sinks in, the more I think Obama actually knocked it out of the park last night. He is, in some ways, the inverse McCain. McCain is all drama and explosions but then ... the air smells like damp, finished fireworks smoke. Obama seems calm and cautious but then ... you realize he cleaned your clock.

A few more morning after thoughts: the body language matters. McCain couldn't look at Obama as if he is offended by even having to share a stage with him. But Obama engaged him directly several times. Check the photo below. Even when shaking hands, McCain looks away. This is, in fact, a sign of insecurity.

The presidential factor:

Continue reading "Why Obama Won Big" »

27 Sep 2008 11:30 am

Quote For The Day

"Frankly, I’ve come to think, post-Kissinger, post-Katie-Couric, that Palin’s nomination isn’t just an insult to the women (and men) of America. It’s an act of cruelty toward her as well," - Judith Warner, NYT.

27 Sep 2008 11:15 am

The Anger Of McCain

Josh Marshall has a definitive post.

27 Sep 2008 10:31 am

Torture In America

Rachel Maddow interviews Alex Gibney, Director of Taxi to the Dark Side, which premieres on HBO September 29th:

27 Sep 2008 10:22 am

By Rove's Pre-Debate Logic

Didn't McCain lose? Money quote:

Mr. McCain needs to come across as optimistic, loose and likable. He must guard against revealing his lack of respect for Mr. Obama. And he must grab the "change" banner from Mr. Obama by describing a few things he'll do internationally that are new and different.

On those points, McCain blew it. He can't hide his contempt for Obama. In this angry atmosphere a 26-year Senate veteran cannot afford to seem offended that a relative newcomer can challenge him.

27 Sep 2008 10:20 am

The Fox Focus Group

They gave the debate to Obama:

27 Sep 2008 09:59 am

The Debate Spinners

Did anyone notice that in the TV spin afterwards, Biden was everywhere as you would expect of a vice-presidential nominee, but Palin was nowhere to be found? They can't even rely on her to spin without tangling herself in knots and adding new layers of lies to her existing web of untruth.

27 Sep 2008 09:40 am

Kissinger and Obama

A reader writes:

What is missing from the Kissinger/Iran issue is this: The issue is whether or not we meet with enemies WITH or WITHOUT preconditions. NOT at what level we will talk. Bush wants countries to do it his way BEFORE he will talk, which clearly has not worked. Kissinger said it is OK to meet without getting what you want first. The debate in the press and blogs today is focusing on the wrong point. Obama is correct about what Kissinger said that  supports his position.

27 Sep 2008 09:34 am

Sarah Palin Plays The Drums

Well, she's doing her best:

27 Sep 2008 09:18 am

The Polls Say Obama Won

That was my impression too. I was much more impressed with Obama's performance than many other bloggers. Here's the CNN poll:

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one better described Barack Obama or John McCain during tonight's debate:

• Was more intelligent: Obama 55%, McCain 30%

• Expressed his views more clearly: Obama 53%, McCain 36%

• Spent more time attacking his opponent: McCain 60%, Obama 23%

• Was more sincere and authentic: Obama 46%, McCain 38%

• Seemed to be the stronger leader: Obama 49%, McCain 43%

• Was more likeable: Obama 61%, McCain 26%

• Was more in touch with the needs and problems of people like you: Obama 62%, McCain 32%

Since the economy has emerged as the biggest issue, these two findings on who did better on what topic are pretty important:

Continue reading "The Polls Say Obama Won" »

27 Sep 2008 07:52 am

Sterilizing The Poor

Rep. John LaBruzzo (R) wants to "pay poor women $1,000 to have their Fallopian tubes tied."

27 Sep 2008 12:42 am

Kissinger Speaks

He's not happy according the Weekly Standard:

"Senator McCain is right. I would not recommend the next President of the United States engage in talks with Iran at the Presidential level. My views on this issue are entirely compatible with the views of my friend Senator John McCain. We do not agree on everything, but we do agree that any negotiations with Iran must be geared to reality."

27 Sep 2008 12:14 am

Debate Reax

Fallows:

Unless it happened when I glanced away, up until this moment, 77 minutes into the 90-minute debates, John McCain has not once looked at Obama -- while listening to him, while addressing him, while disagreeing with him, while finding moments of accord.

This is distinctly strange -- if anyone else notices.  Obama is acting as if this is a conversation; McCain, as if he cannot acknowledge the other party in the discussion.

Rod Dreher:

I think Obama has to be judged the winner. Nobody's mind will be changed by this debate, but Obama seemed loose and confident and not intimidate by McCain. McCain seemed growly and tense, though more focused than usual. Because McCain didn't beat Obama, and because Obama is ahead right now, Obama wins a narrow victory.

Ambinder:

No  memorable moments.  Fascinating body language. No major gaffes by either candidates. No major surprises...A good debate for both men...Thresholds are artificial, but both candidates seemed to meet them - although Obama's threshold was arguably higher.  The press will probably conclude that McCain did not fundamentally change impressions tonight.  And that Obama held his own.

Continue reading "Debate Reax" »

Friday, September 26, 2008

26 Sep 2008 11:55 pm

Watching With The Sound Down

A reader writes:

If you judge this debate purely on the "how to debate on tv" standards, McCain did poorly. He never looks at Obama. He giggles nervously and his eyes dart away, and at the precise moments when Obama is landing a punch--when McCain should be standing tall and looking elegant or bemused, as JFK or Clinton would have--his eyes blink and he looks down nervously and away, like he's hiding something, just like Nixon used to!

Basically, here it is: With the sound down, Obama took it, hands down.

My main stylistic impression was that Obama was crisper than usual, sharper, and more aggressive than in his debates with Clinton.

26 Sep 2008 10:57 pm

Live-Blogging Reax

Lots of other live-blogging going on tonight. Larison:

Obama is doing quite well, especially as compared to some of his clumsy primary performances.  McCain is starting to let his contempt for Obama show.  He keeps laughing like some sort of disturbed gremlin.  Obama has avoided his old habit of disjointed, professorial answers. 

Ben Smith:

A sharp contrast in their approach to the crisis: Obama seeks, twice, to pin blame on McCain and on the Republicans; McCain looks forward and tries to cast his efforts in Washington, and the House Republican stance, as a triumph of bipartisanship.

Michael Crowley:

Obama would do well not to say things like "al Qaeda are attacking our troops in a brazen fashion, they feel emboldened." It's academic language to describe something he should be passionate and visceral about. It reminds me of John Kerry.

Peter Suderman:

Obama projects understanding, intelligence, and confidence.

Continue reading "Live-Blogging Reax" »

26 Sep 2008 10:48 pm

Kissinger On Engaging Iran

I don't want to get into semantics about preparations and preconditions, but here's a recent article that cites Kissinger:

Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger says the United States should begin direct negotiations with Iran over its nuclear enrichment program. Kissinger, speaking Monday at George Washington University along with four other former U.S. State Department secretaries, said the next president should initiate high-level discussions with Iran "without conditions," ABC News reported.

In general there is no doubt that Kissinger, who was prepared to meet with Mao, is not exactly queasy about directly engaging foreign tyrants. He's a realist and McCain is now a full metal neocon. Obama is much more in the Kissinger tradition than McCain is. But, frankly, I'm not sure what McCain is any more. And I'm not entirely clear he knows either.

26 Sep 2008 09:10 pm

Live-Blogging Ole Miss

10.31 pm. It strikes me as a mistake for McCain to end the debate on his commitment to staying in Iraq indefinitely. Obama's emphasis on the broader global conflict and our broader responsibilities will reach more people. His vision seems broader, wiser, and more focused on ordinary people. A masterful performance tonight, I think. Obama's best ever debate performance. McCain was fine, but it's wrong for him to attack his opponent at the end. And then he gave a slightly rambling defense of his experience. I give Obama an A - and I give McCain a B.

10.30 pm. Obama ends with a focus on al Qaeda and loose nukes. Vital. Important. People get it. And Obama's nod to McCain on torture was graceful. We may soon end this nightmare of barbarism in the heart of the United States. And then we can bring the war criminals to justice.

10.28 pm. I must say I am grateful that John McCain has now stated twice that the United States has engaged in torturing prisoners. The use of that word clearly is important. It reassures me that he would, if president, end the shameful record and war crimes of Bush and Cheney.

10.27 pm. On the connection between energy independence and national security, Obama was very strong. He's the most forceful and commanding candidate the Democrats have put up in my living memory.

10.21 pm. McCain has argued that Russia is run by the KGB and that Georgia should be included in NATO which means going to war if Russia were to attack Georgia.

10.17 pm. Does McCain understand that talking directly to the Iranians does not necessarily mean Ahmadinejad? In his foreign policy approach, he seems identical to Bush-Cheney. I can't believe most Americans want to continue the foreign policy of the last eight years.

Continue reading "Live-Blogging Ole Miss" »

26 Sep 2008 08:27 pm

The Stakes

Marc has a pre-debate run-down:

What resonates are moments -- the debate is taking place against the backdrop of a crisis, and it is the candidates' responses to the crisis, in real time, that will leave the most impressions.

The stakes are high for Obama here as well, but McCain is the one who's going to be defending his questionable choices of late.

26 Sep 2008 07:58 pm

Before The Debate

Where things stand going in:

On the eve of the first Presidential Debate, Barack Obama is perhaps in as strong a position in the polls as he has been all year, now projecting to win the election 74.7 percent of the time. Both the state and the national polls that have come out within the past 48 hours have generally been quite favorable to Obama, and suggest that he may gained an additional point or so above and beyond his "Lehman Leap" from last week.

Which means Obama has to look presidential and make no obvious mistakes. I think all he needs at this point is to pass the commander-in-chief threshhold. Like Reagan had to in 1980. And then if it breaks, it probably breaks big - big enough, one hopes, to overcome the race-based five point margin that will always have to be subtracted from his total.

26 Sep 2008 07:10 pm

McCain's Impact On The Bailout

Non-existant according to Tapper:

...the dynamic would likely be as it is right now whether or not McCain had been in Washington, DC.

26 Sep 2008 06:42 pm

Palin Is Getting Worse?

Crowley has a theory as to why. Chris Orr offers his own thoughts. My own view is that the Hannity interview doesn't count as it was an infomercial. And Gibson was pretty easy. Couric may have rescued her career with that interview. In other words: There's no Palin decline. There was nothing to decline from. There is no there there but ambition, fundamentalism and a bizarre personal life. And the pressure of her countless lies - especially about her personal life - must be beginning to tell. My own view is that she is such a massive joke she will kill the ticket; but if McCain asked her to withdraw, it would so destroy his own record of judgment, he would also lose. So we have two scenarios: either they struggle on, keep the Schmidt fireworks to distract from reality, and hope that racism and Christianism will somehow get them to the finishing line - or we start all over with Romney. But it's getting too late to switch GOP candidates.

I don't think the Palin problem is fixable. She is who she is: an unqualified fundamentalist liar with no knowledge of or experience in national domestic or foreign policy. And McCain had absolutely no idea who she was when he picked her.

26 Sep 2008 06:27 pm

About Last Week

Mickey Kaus:

Obama's the calm guy and McCain is the chicken running around with his head cut off.

26 Sep 2008 06:19 pm

Pure Tactics, No Message

"It just proves his campaign is governed by tactics and not ideology. In the end, he blinked and Obama did not. The 'steady hand in a storm' argument looks now to more favor Obama, not McCain," - Craig Shirley, Republican consultant and former McCain adviser.

26 Sep 2008 06:17 pm

Tonight's Debate

Yes, I'll be live-blogging. Stay tuned.

26 Sep 2008 06:06 pm

Flow Chart Of The Day

Zubin Jelveh graphs Palin's answer on the bailout:

Yeah: I have no more idea of what she was talking about than she did.

26 Sep 2008 05:59 pm

The View From Your Window

Oxford, England, 4.56 pm.

26 Sep 2008 05:42 pm

Palin And Orwell

And the English language.

26 Sep 2008 05:24 pm

Fighting The Power

An alternative version of the pageant video. As often as they try to remove it, the people will replace it.

26 Sep 2008 05:22 pm

Quote For The Day

"I'm 65 and I've been covering politics for a long time. That is one of the most pathetic tapes I have ever seen from someone aspiring to one of the highest offices in this country. And that's all I have to say," - Jack Cafferty on the Couric-Palin interview.

It is simply impossible for any sane and reasonable person to vote for John McCain when this fool and liar and utterly unqualified person could take over at any moment. I stand by my statement that this Palin decision disqualifies John McCain outright from being president of the United States. Until she is removed from the ticket, no sane conservative can vote for this farce.

26 Sep 2008 05:08 pm

Palin Pageant Video Withdrawn

What a free country it is. Well: you had an hour. I will keep you posted.

26 Sep 2008 05:03 pm

The Blindness Of David Brooks

He's sticking by the McCain he says he knows. He wants to separate the despicable lies and insane ploys that this man has been throwing into the mix in this election season as some kind of aberration. Please. He knows what he is doing: lying and lying and offering the most reckless, cynical gambits I can ever remember in a political campaign. His contempt for his oppponent is as obvious as it is unmerited.

Brooks: "He was an unfailingly candid man." So why the stream of bald-faced lies now? To give one simple example, he said on live television that Sarah Palin never received federal handouts for Alaska as governor. He lied. He has not apologized or retracted that lie.

Brooks: McCain is "a humble man".  Is Brooks really saying that a humble man would come back from Vietnam and among his first actions write a massive piece about his heroism in US News and then "write" five memoirs detailing his own heroism?  Does a humble man bring up the Hanoi Hilton even when discussing his own many houses today? Real heroes never talk about their war records. McCain has milked and milked and milked his shamelessly for political advantage from the minute he got home. Men of the Greatest Generation wouldn't dream of this disgusting exploitation.

Continue reading "The Blindness Of David Brooks" »

26 Sep 2008 04:51 pm

The Keating 5 In 97 Seconds

26 Sep 2008 04:34 pm

Expectations

Obama says "McCain's debating skills are unparalleled...and the expectations for him tonight are sky-high." The McCain camp doesn't launch into hyperbole but also tries to set expectations by calling Obama's debating skills "pretty good."