Saturday, January 26, 2008

26 Jan 2008 11:05 pm

A Dam Breaks?

Conservatives recognize what's in front of them. Here's Lowry:

That was not only a stirring victory speech by Obama, but a devastating rebuke to the Clintons clothed in inspirational liberal terms.

And Pete Wehner, who has noted Obama's power before:

Unlike Clinton and especially Edwards, the Obama message is about unity, not divisions; and hopes rather than grievances. If Obama wins the Democratic nomination, Republicans have a great deal to fear. He has tremendous break-out potential.

He nearly had K-Lo. And some liberals also saw new strength. Noam Scheiber agrees with me about the speech. Dickerson has a great line:

Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton so badly in South Carolina it may spawn some new kind of Southern colloquialism.

And don't miss Ambers.

(Photo: supporters watch Obama's acceptance speech in South Carolina tonight. By Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty.)

26 Jan 2008 10:36 pm

Exit Poll Nuggets

The exit polls show a couple of fascinating data points: Obama won 52 percent of the non-black vote under 30. Among the over-60s, he won a mere 15 percent of the non-black vote. The legacy is racism is clearly dying. Then this: Obama won every demographic among the religiously observant. And the more devout they are - judging by their church attendance - the better he did. His narrowest margins against Clinton and Edwards were among those who never attend church services.

26 Jan 2008 09:48 pm

"A President Like My Father"

Caroline Kennedy goes where her cousins have not:

I want a president who understands that his responsibility is to articulate a vision and encourage others to achieve it; who holds himself, and those around him, to the highest ethical standards; who appeals to the hopes of those who still believe in the American Dream, and those around the world who still believe in the American ideal; and who can lift our spirits, and make us believe again that our country needs every one of us to get involved.

I have never had a president who inspired me the way people tell me that my father inspired them. But for the first time, I believe I have found the man who could be that president — not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans.

I've often wondered why even I - who was three months old in a foreign country when he was assassinated - feel the power of the Kennedy charisma from the 1960s. I know the many mistakes he made and the good reasons to criticize his presidency. But the memory of him as a symbol of eternal possibility endures. It endures beyond the shores of this country. Why?

Because America still means something, and every now and again, a person captures it: the restless, liberal hope for a better future, under the sober constraints of a conservative constitution. That was Kennedy. It was also Reagan, as Bill Bennett gracefully recognized tonight. It's real. You can feel it. And who wants to win the presidency by defeating it?

Sometimes, things come together. Watching a black man win the South Carolina primary in a landslide by transcending race: I can't help be moved and inspired. Like so many of my generation and many, many more younger than me, Obama makes me believe in America again, after seven years of brutal, painful, searing disillusionment. I won't let that go. Neither, I have a feeling, will the American people.

(Photo: the scene at Obama headquarters in South Carolina tonight. Win McNamee/Getty.)

26 Jan 2008 09:34 pm

Obama Beat McCain and Huckabee Combined

That's a staggering fact, as a reader reminds me:

In last week's SC GOP primary, McCain and Huckabee (the top 2 finishers), got 147,283 and 132,440 votes respectively. That's a total of 279,723. Obama just pulled down 291,000 by himself. Here's the data.

I'd say this is the game changer. Obama can now say that he's got the best ability to put southern states in play. Obama can attempt a true 50 state strategy. He probably would not win too many southern states, but winning a few absolutely obliterates the GOP's chances in November.

Another interpretation:

This also shows that George W Bush is a uniter after all: People are so fucking frustrated that even rednecks are willing to give a black guy a chance.

 

26 Jan 2008 09:25 pm

Obama's Acceptance Speech

I've now listened to and read dozens of his speeches, on television and in person and in print. Tonight was, in my judgment, the best. He was able to frame the attacks on him as a reason to vote for him. He was able to frame his foes as the status quo - beyond the Clintons or the Bushes, Democrats or Republicans. He was able to cast his candidacy as a rebuke to the Balkanization of the American public, a response to the abuse of religion for political purposes, a repudiation of the cynicism that makes all political commentary a function of horse-races and spin. It was an appeal to Democrats, Republicans and Independents to say goodbye to all that. It was a burial of Rove and Morris. And it was better than his previous speeches because he kept bringing it back to policy specifics, to the economy and healthcare and, movingly, to this misbegotten war. The diverse coalition he has assembled - including an ornery small-government conservative like me - is a reflection of the future of this country, its potential and its irreplaceable, dynamic cultural and social mix.

This is the America we all love. He is showing us how to find it again. That's leadership.

And, yes. We can.

26 Jan 2008 09:07 pm

55 - 27!

Sorry, but the Clintons were just destroyed in South Carolina in an unprecedented turnout. This was a butt-kicking of massive proportions. How else do you interpret a 28 point margin? It's staggering.

And I'm sitting here watching Bill Bennett, despite his Republican loyalties, clearly happy that we have achieved this breakthrough in civility, in transcending race, in bringing so many people back into the system. Good for Bennett to see the import of this. This is history.

In some ways, I wonder if the Clintons' baring of the fangs hasn't played to Obama's advantage. He is showing he can beat some of toughest competition out there. If he wins, he will have beaten not just Hillary but Bill as well. He will have redefined the Democratic party and remade its politics. By staying civil, by focusing on the big picture, by refusing to take the low road while defending himself robustly: he won the right way. And he will win in a big way.

Yes, we can! Si, se puede!

26 Jan 2008 08:56 pm

Barack 1, Bill 0

In the war of words, both men were hurt, but a majority sided with Obama:

In the exit polls, we asked voters in this primary if the candidates were attacking each other unfairly. Fifty-six percent of those voting so far think Obama attacked Clinton unfairly, and while that is a high number, more people thought Clinton unfairly attacked Obama -- 70%.

26 Jan 2008 08:44 pm

Bill's Advance Spin

In a simple phrase: "Jesse Jackson won South Carolina twice". Listen to it yourself. I'm not making that up.

I don't think there can be any doubt about the Clintons' racial strategy now. The people of South Carolina just rejected that logic by voting for Obama - white and black, male and female - in a diverse coalition in the face of a deliberate attempt at racial polarization. They threw the Clintons' logic back in their faces. Kudos to Josh for noticing this. It's revealing, and depressing.

26 Jan 2008 08:30 pm

Obama's Second Coming (Or Is It Third?)

This looks much bigger than expected. Bill seems to have hurt Hillary's candidacy:

Roughly 6 in 10 South Carolina Democratic primary voters said Bill Clinton's campaigning was important in how they ultimately decided to vote, and of those voters, 48 percent went for Barack Obama while only 37 percent went for Hillary Clinton. Fourteen percent of those voters voted for John Edwards.

Meanwhile, the exit polls also indicate Obama easily beat Clinton among those voters who decided in the last three days — when news reports heavily covered the former president's heightened criticisms of Obama. Twenty percent of South Carolina Democrats made their decision in the last three days and 51 percent of them chose Obama, while only 21 percent picked Clinton.

And Oprah came through:

Fifty-three percent of women - including 79 percent of black women - supported Obama. Clinton received the support of 30 percent of women. Obama was strongest among men, especially black men, while Edwards was strongest among white men.

Race mattered - but by no means as much as some feared, with Obama winning a quarter of the white vote, much better than the 10 percent recorded in some late polls. Is that a reverse Bradley effect? And on the question of unifying the country and defeating the Republicans, Obama scored a huge victory:

Fifty-five percent of South Carolina Democrats viewed Obama as the candidate most likely to unite the country, and 47 percent cited him as most likely to beat a Republican in November. Clinton was cited as most likely to unite the country by 26 percent of Democrats, and 36 percent said she was most likely to win.

These inferences are from the exit polls. The final result is still to come. Stay tuned.

(Photo: Brendan Smialowski/Getty.)

26 Jan 2008 08:23 pm

Crist Endorses McCain

A big blow to Romney in Florida. With Crist, Martinez and South Carolina behind him, the momentum is with the old guy. And the shameful era of American torture may come to an end ...

26 Jan 2008 06:30 pm

Is Bill Also After McCain?

A reader suggests that the real import of Bill Clinton's recent remark about how well his wife and John McCain get along is not an attempt to help Hillary. It's an attempt to damage McCain, the Clintons' next target, in Florida and throughout the South and West. My reader has a nice phrase to describe the power-couple's effect on many of us:

They’re like the flu. You just feel miserable.

26 Jan 2008 05:13 pm

The Rules Are For Other People

The Clintons push the envelope again - on the Michigan and Florida delegates. Ed Morrissey and Josh Marshall come together. Maybe the Clintons can bring the country together again - in revulsion at their expediency. Jon Chait crosses the anti-Clinton Rubicon for the first time:

Something strange happened the other day. All these different people -- friends, co-workers, relatives, people on a liberal e-mail list I read -- kept saying the same thing: They've suddenly developed a disdain for Bill and Hillary Clinton. Maybe this is just a coincidence, but I think we've reached an irrevocable turning point in liberal opinion of the Clintons.

Wakey! Wakey!

26 Jan 2008 05:01 pm

Right In The Smacker

An unfortunate moment in investigative journalism:

26 Jan 2008 04:34 pm

Yglesias Award Nominee

"Bill Clinton is not a racist, but he is crafting a message that unleashes the demon of racism into the Democratic primary because it will help him win. He has unleashed this demon: this base appeal to our fears and divisions. It is done and it can not be put back into the bottle.

It will be a part of the 2008 election regardless of who wins. And it has and will hurt Democrats in 2008. Bill Clinton’s released meme is dividing the Party and I do not see a way back to unity," - a Kossite, reflecting growing disgust in Democratic ranks at the tactics of the Clintons.

26 Jan 2008 03:21 pm

The Economist On Bill

An editorial worth absorbing:

The Clintons are in the process of doing the impossible: making the 2008 election a referendum on them, rather than on the Republicans. And the Republicans are inching towards nominating their one candidate, Mr McCain, who has broad popular appeal. If what ought to be a stroll in the park in November becomes a real fight, then the Democrats will know who to blame.

26 Jan 2008 03:18 pm

Obama Gains?

The Rasmussen tracking poll shows a sharp tightening of the national race, with Obama within 3 points of Clinton. It's one day and it's Rasmussen - so the usual caveats. But I wonder: is Bill provoking a backlash?

26 Jan 2008 03:13 pm

Delegates Or Votes?

A must-read Ambers report on how the Cliton and Obama campaigns will be spinning the next couple of weeks. At least.

26 Jan 2008 02:51 pm

Bear Band

26 Jan 2008 02:37 pm

Dating Male Models

As Cartman might say, why the fuck not? I like this sentiment from an empowered woman who has the courage of her own desires:

Most of the time, when they end, I think, What an ass. If it's going to turn out like that anyway, I'd rather it be a fine-looking ass.

Exactly.

26 Jan 2008 12:56 pm

Von Hoffmann Award Nominee

"[Bill] Clinton doesn’t like to play an overtly political role anymore; he enjoys the statesmanlike aura that surrounds any ex-president, and he is not about to undermine it, even for his wife’s campaign," - Matt Bai, New York Times Magazine, December 23, 2007.

He admirably cops to it here. Glossary for Dish award criteria here.

26 Jan 2008 12:45 pm

Romney Whisper Update

This thing won't quite go away. A reader writes:

Some people have enhanced the first "he raised taxes" whisper using audio technology and have discovered that there was actually more to it than just "he raised taxes".  They've disconvered that more can be heard: "He raised taxes, I'm not gonna...".  Listen to the full enhanced audio yourself.  Go out and get a tape and enhance it yourself if you think this is wrong.

This is even greater proof that there is something going on here.  If this is correct, then it's not just a microphone malfunction, but an ACTUAL answer to the question Romney was given: "He (Reagan) raised taxes.  I'm not going to raise taxes."

Go after this!  After being lied to about the war, about WMDs, about torture, about absolutely everything from the GOP powerhouse, this cannot be left for us to figure out at a later time once Romney is in the White House!

I really don't know what happened. But I have yet to hear a convincing explanation either.

26 Jan 2008 12:25 pm

The Best Clinton Column Yet

A blast of pure derision from the essential Colbert King.

26 Jan 2008 12:20 pm

The View From Your Window

Gjilan, Kosovo, 12.15 pm.

26 Jan 2008 12:16 pm

The Harvard Crimson For Obama

A pitch-perfect editorial. The younger generation gets it.

26 Jan 2008 12:06 pm

A Constitutional Question, Ctd.

My own rambling thoughts on the dangers - political and constitutional - of a two-headed executive can be read here. Today, Garry Wills provides a deeper analysis, one that goes back to the Founders and their legitimate worries about accountability without a, ahem, unitary executive. He fears that Bill Clinton could become Hillary's Dick Cheney - but worse, in fact, since at least Cheney was on the ballot and in some sense accountable to the public directly. Money quote:

No other vice president in our history has taken on so many presidential prerogatives, with so few checks. He is an example of the very thing James Wilson was trying to prevent by having one locus of authority in the executive. The attempt to escape single responsibility was perfectly exemplified when his counsel argued that Mr. Cheney was not subject to executive rules because he was also part of the legislature.

We have seen in this campaign how former President Clinton rushes to the defense of presidential candidate Clinton. Will that pattern of protection be continued into the new presidency, with not only his defending her but also her defending whatever he might do in his energetic way while she’s in office? It seems likely. And at a time when we should be trying to return to the single-executive system the Constitution prescribes, it does not seem to be a good idea to put another co-president in the White House.

Can we all agree on that?

26 Jan 2008 12:06 pm

Predictive Texting

26 Jan 2008 11:54 am

How Obama Has Handled The Clintons

I would have lost it. He didn't. His coolness and good humor under fire have not gotten enough attention. Here's a good take on it.

26 Jan 2008 11:54 am

The Obama-Muslim Emails

Ross, Marc and Matt talk it over in the humming, throbbing intellectually tumescent world of the seventh floor Atlantic library.

26 Jan 2008 11:50 am

Why One South Carolinan Voted For The Clintons

A reader writes:   

I intended to vote for Obama this morning and my husband for Hillary. But on the way to the polling place, my five year old daughter asked who we were voting for. I said, "Mommy is voting for a nice man named Barack Obama and Daddy is voting for a nice woman named Hillary Clinton." She replied, "But I thought only men were presidents."  It was a punch to the gut.  So I took her in with me and let her push the button on the electronic screen for Hillary. (My husband ended up switching and voting for Obama at the last minute so it all evened out.) You can call me a racist if you want, but I don't want any one else's daughter to say the same thing to her mother in four years.

26 Jan 2008 11:38 am

The Art Of Math

Continue reading "The Art Of Math " »

26 Jan 2008 10:17 am

Male Genital Mutilation Update

26 Jan 2008 09:59 am

A Weed Vending Machine

26 Jan 2008 09:01 am

The Electronic Eye

26 Jan 2008 08:12 am

The Hispanic Vote In SC Update

Oh well. Obama has at least six Latino supporters:

Note that the Survey USA poll you refer to finds Hispanics to be 1 percent of likely primary voters.  In other words, the conclusion that Hispanics support Obama is based on a very small number of people (maybe as few as 6).  Further, these are robo-call polls which may or may not present particular problems for people whose native language is not English.  In any case, the true test will be NY, NJ, CA and some of the others.

Friday, January 25, 2008

25 Jan 2008 10:30 pm

The Corruption Of Feminism

A reader transcribed the following conversation on Hardball tonight:

Chris Matthews: Faye, you first, you know Hillary Clinton, you know Bill Clinton. What's Bill's role in this thing, is it a good role or a bad role?

Faye Wattleton: Well, I think that Bill Clinton's role is that of the spouses of all the candidates, he's participating as a surrogate for his wife who is running. And I think that its entirely consistent with the ascension of other women to the top offices in their country; they come about it as the result of the president being their spouse or being members of prominent families. So I don't think that we should be so upset and agitated about Mr. Clinton's participation  - we should continue to focus on the issues that the people want to hear about...these other matters are really side issues.

Wow. A proud defense of nepotism over feminism. Or rather, as is the Clintons' wont, a total conflation of feminism with nepotism. I remember similar Clintonian feminists in the 1990s trashing, smearing and sliming women who dared to complain about the sexual harassment and abuse of women that Bill Clinton - with his wife's full knowledge - engaged in for years. This couple really do corrupt everything they touch.

25 Jan 2008 08:41 pm

Big Bird's Legacy

A reader writes:

Holt obviously has no children. As a pediatrician, I attempted to heed the American Academy of Pediatrics’ advice on limiting TV for my kids.  I tried to teach them about all I wanted them to learn from an early age- I got nowhere.  Once my kids started to watch Sesame Street, I saw their eyes light up.  They all of a sudden developed a love of letters and numbers and shapes that I couldn’t instill in them personally.  The education that these talking puppets gave my children has been far more impressive than anything I did.  There’s some kind of magic that spreads into a child’s mind when a talking and singing puppet talks directly to them.  Thank God that these puppets were used for good and not evil.  I wouldn’t have stood a chance no matter how moral a compass I tried to imbue them with.

25 Jan 2008 08:33 pm

Figuring Out Anger At The Clintons

25 Jan 2008 08:02 pm

South Carolina End-Game

Charles Franklin pores over the sensitive last-minute polling.

25 Jan 2008 08:00 pm

Romney Whisper

MSNBC's explanation makes no sense at all. Was it a secret service agent?

25 Jan 2008 07:57 pm

Face Of The Day

Miner Stuart Griffin laughs as he leaves the mine after the final shift at the Tower Colliery in Hirwaun, near Merthyr Tydfill on January 25 2008 in Wales, United Kingdom. The Cynon Valley pit is one of the oldest continuously-worked mines in the world and the last deep mine in Wales. Tower is the only colliery within the once-thriving South Wales coalfield to drain all its coal resources and hit the headlines in 1994 when it was subject to a miners buy-out of the deep mine - after it had been closed by the then Conservative Government. By Matt Cardy/Getty Images.

25 Jan 2008 07:08 pm

Evita!

25 Jan 2008 06:27 pm

Should McCain Reject The NYT Endorsement?

25 Jan 2008 06:12 pm

The "GLBTQTQI" Community

25 Jan 2008 05:36 pm

Hillary Clinton's New Black Friend

25 Jan 2008 05:23 pm

A Constitutional Question

25 Jan 2008 05:20 pm

Quote For The Day III

25 Jan 2008 05:14 pm

Bill and Dick

25 Jan 2008 05:13 pm

"35 Years Of Experience"

25 Jan 2008 04:52 pm

"American-Style Torture"

25 Jan 2008 04:45 pm

Another Twist

Clinton is trying to reinstate Michigan's and Florida's delegates. Ezra Klein:

This is the sort of decision that has the potential to tear the party apart.