Friday, October 3, 2008

03 Oct 2008 10:55 am

Reality Check II: Unemployment Is Soaring

And that was before the recent credit crunch.

03 Oct 2008 10:54 am

Reality Check I: California Is Broke

Arnold may soon need a $7 billion loan from the Feds because the credit markets are locked up.

03 Oct 2008 10:41 am

The Palin Debate Flow-Chart

From Adennak:

03 Oct 2008 10:33 am

Is It Really That Much To Ask?

Jeffrey Goldberg wants a press conference. So do I. It should be the most basic requirement of a candidate. So why will they not allow it?

03 Oct 2008 10:29 am

Does Biden's Win Matter?

Mark Blumenthal says no.

03 Oct 2008 10:26 am

New Hampshire

McCain had some small hopes there. Rasmussen just gave Obama a ten-point lead.

03 Oct 2008 10:17 am

The Putin Strategy

Sean Quinn doesn't think we are going to see much more of Palin on CBS evening news:

With the exception of a few short, scripted rally speeches, vis-a-vis the press will she go straight to Dick Cheney's bunker, do not pass go, do not collect $200?

I suspect she will.

Continue reading "The Putin Strategy" »

03 Oct 2008 10:05 am

Scheiber On The Debate

He captures my morning-after take exactly:

My completely impressionistic take on Palin's performance tonight is that it mirrored her campaign performance so far (if not quite as dramatically): When Palin started off, you thought, "Wow, she seems so fresh--so human and easy to relate to. How can we compete with that?" Then, as the debate wore on, you thought, "Hmm, okay, she still seems human, but not quite what I'm looking for in a vice president." And, by the end, as the vacuous answers piled up, it was more like, "Good God, keep this woman away from the Oval Office." Which is the story of the last month, too.

03 Oct 2008 09:50 am

Torture v. Shooting His Friend In The Face

Katie Couric asked the vice presidential nominees what is the "best and worst thing that Dick Cheney has done as Vice President?" Biden on Cheney's worst thing:

I think he's done more harm than any other single elected official in memory in terms of shredding the constitution. You know --condoning torture. Pushing torture as a policy. This idea of a unitary executive. Meaning the Congress and the people have no power in a time of war. And the President controls everything. I don't have any animus toward Dick Cheney but I really do think his attitude about the constitution and the prosecution of this war has been absolutely wrong.

What about Palin? Here's her answer:

Continue reading "Torture v. Shooting His Friend In The Face" »

03 Oct 2008 09:33 am

Resisting Bush-Cheney War Crimes

The American Psychological Association has voted to ban any of its members from taking part in the Gestapo-devised torture techniques authorized and enforced by president George W. Bush and vice-president Dick Cheney. The letter the APA president sent president Bush is amazing. I cannot imagine any other president ever receiving such a letter. It concludes:

There have been many reports, from credible sources of torture and cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment of detainees during your term of office. Therefore the American Psychological Association strongly calls on you and your administration to safeguard the phsyical and psychological well-being and human rights of individuals incarcerated by the US government ...

The present is being very harsh on George W. Bush. The future, I suspect, will be much harsher. The stain on this country's decency and honor is indelible. It will take decades to restore the reputation that generations of Americans, from the very beginning, fought and died so bravely to establish.

03 Oct 2008 08:53 am

Ready To Lead?

A key polling nugget from CNN's snap poll:

...on the question of the candidates' qualifications to assume the presidency, 87 percent of the people polled said Biden is qualified while only 42 percent said Palin is qualified.

CBS' poll finds Biden winning the debate, as CNN's did. CBS:

Forty-six percent of these uncommitted viewers said Biden won the debate Thursday night, while 21 percent said Palin won. Thirty-three percent thought it was a tie. Even a quarter of Republican uncommitted voters thought Biden won the debate.

Continue reading "Ready To Lead? " »

03 Oct 2008 08:05 am

Foreclosure Alley

A trip through Southern California and the effects of insane recklessness by both banks and ordinary Americans:

(Hat tip: Conor)

03 Oct 2008 07:24 am

The Ten Lies Of John McCain

Alexander Burns lists McCain's knowing untruths. His preposterous claim to tell the "100 percent, absolute truth" has been destroyed by his campaign. It is as credible as what now passes for his reputation.

03 Oct 2008 07:18 am

The Case For Obama

The New Yorker endorses Obama. A graf:

Perhaps nothing revealed McCain’s cynicism more than his choice of Sarah Palin, the former mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, who had been governor of that state for twenty-one months, as the Republican nominee for Vice-President.

Continue reading "The Case For Obama" »

Thursday, October 2, 2008

02 Oct 2008 11:34 pm

Debate Reax

Fallows:

Ifill, moderator: Terrible. Yes, she was constrained by the agreed debate rules. But she gave not the slightest sign of chafing against them or looking for ways to follow up the many unanswered questions or self-contradictory answers. This was the big news of the evening. Katie Couric, and for that matter Jim Lehrer, have never looked so good.

Alex Massie:

Palin is reading off cue-cards that, one assumes, have complete answers written out. Not, of course, the answers to the questions she is being asked but, indubitably, answers nonetheless.

James Poulos:

Palin wins on domestic; Biden wins on foreign policy. But Palin’s relative strength here can’t do much, I don’t think, to help McCain’s basic disadvantage on the main domestic issue — the economy.

Ramesh Ponnuru:

Any conservative who was white-knuckled going into this is relaxing by now. There were some points where she was a bit more platitudinous than one would ideally want, but overall--she's cleaning up. Biden is sighing more as the night goes on, and I can see why.

Continue reading "Debate Reax" »

02 Oct 2008 11:14 pm

CNN's Poll

It gives the debate decisively to Biden, 51 to 36 percent. Palin did better than expected but Biden crushed her in the polling. And the question of whether the debate changed people's views of her ability to be president: basically no change.

02 Oct 2008 11:10 pm

Two Moments

A reader writes:

I think you are holding back because you suspect your own judgment as being too tilted against Palin.

Biden won the debate, pretty easily.  You will see this is exactly like the first Obama/McCain debate, the overall effect willl settle in hours and days later when you realize that the steady, calm, authoritative showing by Biden actually crushed Palin.  Actually, Biden did the same as Obama, but even more so.

Two things immediately jump out as memorable.  Biden ruled on the VP question, absolutely ruled, and she was clueless.  And his breakdown in talking about his son almost dying was even more poignant because of her immediate, insensitive, complete disregard for what had been a genuine moment. 

Those are the two moments that will live on after the debate.

02 Oct 2008 11:02 pm

Your Reaction

Readers have given me a shellacking tonight. But you calmed down as I did as the debate went on. Look: I owe it to you just to tell you what I'm thinking moment to moment. I don't spin this, I do my best to call it as I see it. A reader writes:

The closing statements are about to wrap. I have been watching your comments and have reached the same conclusion. Palin caught Biden off guard by coming off as a pretty competent debater (facts aside). Once Biden realized that he was facing a real opponent and became less afraid to fight back, he cleaned her clock. They sent Biden in with a muzzle. Thank goodness he was smart enough to know when to take it off.

Another:

You're fretting too much. Biden is coming across much more consistant and reasonable - Palin is sounding frantic and frenetic, piling on talking points and insisting on changing to her agenda to a far greater degree than Biden.

Another:

Continue reading "Your Reaction" »

02 Oct 2008 10:43 pm

The Bottom Line

Biden didn't put the boot in; he didn't come off as sexist; he didn't make any obvious gaffes. Palin didn't collapse and pushed through the debate with enough speed not to wobble. But it felt as if she needed the speed in order not to wobble. Her inexperience showed; her tone worked best at first and then began to grate. I don't think this debate changed the direction of this election campaign, and I think Palin's performance will buck up base Republicans but actually unnerve some independents.

The campaign's trajectory remains unaltered. Palin's inability to answer real questions, her capacity to avoid follow-ups, her slightly manic quality, and her inability to relate to working class voters came across. Biden did not talk too much; he made no sexist gaffes; he didn't appear to be overweening; he seemed like a nice guy. I think she managed to avoid a tailspin; he reassured. It will stem the GOP collapse a little. But it won't change the race.

What we need now is a press conference with Palin. She needs to be forced to answer follow-ups. She needs to be made accessible to the press and thereby the American people.

(Photo: Scott Olson/Getty.)

02 Oct 2008 09:12 pm

Live-Blogging The Veeps

10.30 pm. Biden's sobriety and authority and call for fundamental change is both reasonable and solid. It will resonate, I think. As you can read, I began this debate feeling that she was steam-rolling him. She was. But it was a steam-roller coming at you on fumes, not real fuel. She doesn't have it. Maybe one day she might. But not now. Biden's peroration was very, very strong. There is no contest here. There was only one loser: Gewn Ifill. She was intimidated, peripheral, neutered. The rules didn't help. But Ifill put in a dreadful performance.

10.29 pm. She's just whirring now. Attacking the mainstream media - I think that means she will refuse to have a press conference before the vote. If that happens, it will be the biggest surrender of the press in this country's modern history. She survived tonight as I suspected by a blizzard of soundbites and folksy populism. But people have to see through this, no?

10.23 pm. I'm changing my mind about this debate. Biden is now cleaning up. He's particularly powerful in bringing the conversation back to the anxieties of middle class Americans. He was thrown off-guard at the start, as I was. But in trying to figure out who you can trust to lead in these troubled times, I think he has now won this debate.

10.22 pm. Biden's answer about his kids, the moment when he clearly choked up, was emotionally very powerful. I expect it will resonate more with women.

10.18 pm. Biden's response on Cheney and the constitution was devastating. His authority against her chatter really told. And that is what is slowly happening in this debate. She started by dazzling people with sheer velocity and energy and gimmicks. But as the debate goes on, her cutesy soundbites actually begin to unnerve. And his authority comes through. This is now a tie, as Biden is gaining fast in the closing stretch. Classic tortoise and hare.

10.17 pm. The unraveling on the veep constitutional role continues. Oy.

10.12 pm. "Doggone it." "Say it ain't so, Joe." "God bless her." A shout out to her home town school. A total ramble of nothing on education. Total ramble. She has begun to unravel once substance is actually required.

Continue reading "Live-Blogging The Veeps" »

02 Oct 2008 08:03 pm

McCain Prepares The Real Dirt

Ambers:

[Obama advisers] fear that Obama's numbers are artificially high, and that the race will tighten somewhat before November 4. They also worry that McCain, who's been running a mix of positive and negative television ads, will dump his money into an entirely negative campaign in October, one that would question  Obama's fitness, patriotism and identity.

02 Oct 2008 07:21 pm

Roubini: "The Mother Of All Bank Runs"?

The biggest bear - and the most prescient - gets even gloomier:

When investors don't trust even venerable institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, you know that the financial crisis is as severe as ever.

Continue reading "Roubini: "The Mother Of All Bank Runs"?" »

02 Oct 2008 06:37 pm

McCain Focuses On Three States

Mike Allen's report sounds grim:

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) now must win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota in order to get enough electoral votes to win the presidency, his campaign says. Those were considered swing states in 2000 and 2004, but George W. Bush lost them both times. “Our ability to pick off one of those three states is where our fortunes are largely held,” a McCain official said. “These are states where Barack Obama is on the defense.”

The assumption:

“We feel strongly that we’re going to win in Florida, Missouri and the traditional Republican states of Virginia and North Carolina.”

02 Oct 2008 06:36 pm

Homer Tries To Vote

02 Oct 2008 06:32 pm

"I'm Not A Rich Man"

Was McCain really dumb enough to say that today?

02 Oct 2008 06:27 pm

90 Seconds

Jack Shafer:

...the Washington University matchup will demand less from the veep candidates than a five-minute appearance on Meet the Press. The rules governing its operation all but guarantee it. So if the debate ends up revealing less about Palin's and Biden's positions than can be found on a bumper sticker, if either candidate escapes tough questions and seeks refuge in homey anecdotes, if the debaters stop talking scant seconds after they start, don't blame moderator Gwen Ifill of PBS. Blame the format.

A format the Obama peeps agreed to. The Obama camp just wants Palin to disappear.

02 Oct 2008 05:56 pm

Expectations Setting?

The McCain camp makes a reel of Biden's gaffes. It's a strange pre-debate move. Usually campaigns try to rise expectations for their opponent not lower them. Still, I'm no Biden fan. He can be a total idiot - and his natural inclination with respect to women is, well, an accident waiting to happen.

And where are his medical records?

02 Oct 2008 05:51 pm

Face Of The Day

A Marine looks on as eighty Royal Marines of Zulu company 45 Commando prepare to leave their base RM Condor for six months tour of Afghanistan on October 2, 2008 in Arbroath, Scotland. A total of 500 Royal Marines from 45 Commando are going to Afghanistan. By Jeff J Mitchell/Getty.

02 Oct 2008 05:43 pm

Women And Obama

A reader writes:

While lots of men want a tough angry guy who will fight for them, most women don't. They make them afraid. The steady move of women to Obama (I would argue starting with Oprah) I think has a lot to do with his easy and calm demeanor.  My wife, who is about the calmest person I know, is vastly more enthusiastic about Obama than any other politician in her lifetime.

02 Oct 2008 05:26 pm

Mastering BS

Ross sees Palin's fumbling as indicative of a larger problem:

Palin is holding up a mirror to the rest of the political world, and revealing how the mix of talking points, bluster, obfuscation and BS that nearly all national politicians traffic in as a matter of course sounds when it's filtered through someone who isn't practiced in it, and isn't ready for the spotlight. Her performances reflect badly on her readiness for the vice presidency, no question - but they reflect badly on our whole compromised, spin-happy political class as well.

Nice try.

Continue reading "Mastering BS" »

02 Oct 2008 04:59 pm

An Open Letter To Sarah Palin

From the American Conservative magazine. They're worried her "thinking" has been controlled by neocons. C'mon, guys. Quit dreaming. You think she would have been selected if she hadn't signed on that dotted line already? Pre-emptive war against Iran is the minimal commitment she will have given to AIPAC and Lieberman and McCain. You think Randy Scheuneman is a realist?

Sometimes, I guess, even Pat Buchanan can be naive.

02 Oct 2008 04:40 pm

Over-Generalizing?

Coates takes issue with my statement about black homophobia. Jamelle Bouie, after looking at the numbers, also says I'm wrong. I wish I were. There is a tsunami of data showing that African-Americans are more opposed to gay equality than any other ethnic group. Here's a taste of the opposition to marriage and civil unions as recorded by Pew this year. Money quote:

By more a margin of more than two-to-one (56% to 26%), more blacks oppose gay marriage than favor it. The balance of opinion among African Americans regarding civil unions is only modestly less negative (53% oppose vs. 34% favor).

More studies bear this out:

African-Americans are more likely than whites — by a 65 percent-to-53 percent margin — to oppose marriage equality for gays and lesbians, according to a new report by the National Black Justice Coalition and Freedom to Marry.

The study showed that African-Americans are “virtually the only constituency in the country that has not become more supportive over the last dozen years, falling from a high of 65 percent support for gay rights in 1996 to only 40 percent in 2004.”

The younger generation is not much better. Young Latinos are much less homophobic than young African-Americans:

Continue reading "Over-Generalizing?" »

02 Oct 2008 04:25 pm

Credit Where It's Due

A reader writes:

It's about time we Obama supporters start giving the guy credit for running what has been perhaps the best political campaign in my lifetime. Even in cases where I questioned his strategy and/or response, after the dust has settled I inevitably have come to the conclusion that Obama was right all along, and that my concerns were either baseless or based on incomplete information.

Look at the first debate, for example.

Continue reading "Credit Where It's Due" »

02 Oct 2008 04:21 pm

Forget Palin For A Second

Yes, it's still me writing this blog. But the real news of today is very simple. McCain has given up on Michigan.It's very hard to see how the electoral math works for him without it. Pennsylvania is therefore key. But McCain is five points behind there as well. Florida? Neck and neck. In the end, the states matter.

02 Oct 2008 04:01 pm

Oily Greenbacks

Alex Tabarrok flags an article in the WSJ on a new currency in prison: fish. Money quote:

Mr. Muntz says he sold more than $1 million of mackerel for federal prison commissaries last year. It accounted for about half his commissary sales, he says, outstripping the canned tuna, crab, chicken and oysters he offers.

02 Oct 2008 03:49 pm

McCain's Pork Diversion

Ezra Klein makes the case for earmarks:

Like a lot of McCain's posturing, his war on pork makes for good headlines and bad governance. If he were anywhere near as dogmatic on earmarks as he claims to be, it's impossible to imagine him passing any major legislation. Ever. Or voting for any major legislation. Or approving budget bills and spending. Or having a working relationship with Congress. Or getting reelected, as every district in the country finds crucial programs and infrastructure subsidies are being cut.

What else is he going to do? Be honest and remind us we have to cut entitlements and defense? McCain - honest?

02 Oct 2008 03:42 pm

When Reality Is Stranger Than Fiction

A few bloggers mistook this satire for a real story.

02 Oct 2008 03:36 pm

Will Obama Keep Gates?

I've been championing the idea for a while. Gates is my kind of conservative: reality-based, prudent, patriotic, low-key, competent and very, very intelligent. And the Obama campaign just dropped another hint they'd like him to stay on.

02 Oct 2008 03:29 pm

Cool Ad Watch

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02 Oct 2008 03:20 pm

WorldMapper

If you love maps as much as I do and enjoyed this post, here's a link to countless such maps on a vast variety of topics. Say goodbye to your afternoon ...

02 Oct 2008 03:09 pm

No Follow-Ups?

Anonymous Liberal reasons that the debate won't be as ugly as the Couric interviews:

What made the Couric interviews so devastating was Couric's tendency (which is actually rare among reporters) to ask follow up questions when she got a non-responsive answer. When Palin would filibuster, Couric would repeat the question or press her for specifics. That's what elicited her most embarrassing responses. But the format of the debate won't allow for those kind of follow up questions.

Continue reading "No Follow-Ups?" »

02 Oct 2008 02:53 pm

Desperately Seeking Sarah

Matt Feeney is taking bets:

Anticipation for tonight’s VP debate has inevitably split itself into two scenarios. In the first, Sarah Palin performs miserably, filling the hall with excruciating silences, lopping off sentences before they have the chance to become sentences, opening for display a vast tundra of mortifying ignorance. Joe Biden doesn’t much figure in this first scenario. In the second scenario, she exceeds the low expectations to one degree or another while Joe Biden reminds us that he’s not exactly Bertrand Russell either. In this second scenario, Palin actually wins the debate.

Cottle believes that the latter scenario is more likely. So do I. But I have no idea. We simply don't know who Palin really is, and if McCain gets his way, we won't until she's in the Oval Office.

02 Oct 2008 02:48 pm

The Soft Bigotry Of Low Expectations

Ambers:

Professional conservatives hope that Palin comes off as minimally competent.

The sexism of the Republican establishment has never been more baldly exposed.

02 Oct 2008 02:45 pm

McCain Abandons Michigan

A sign of the times? I'd be worried about Florida if I were him.

02 Oct 2008 02:41 pm

Put It On The Card

National debt topped $10 trillion yesterday. The price of Bush Republicanism. And that's before the bailout and the depression. Let alone before the coming war in Iran that McCain is eager to launch, and the deepening occupation of Iraq that McCain promises and the endless counter-insurgency in Afghanistan which both Obama and McCain support. Obama doesn't get off the hook either. But the CBO's math shows that McCain will make the debt worse than Obama will.

02 Oct 2008 02:34 pm

Quote For The Day II

"I can take anything but the blogs," - Chuck Heath, Sarah Palin's father.

02 Oct 2008 02:32 pm

At Her Floor?

Chris Orr thinks it gets better for Palin from now on:

[Palin] is much closer to her floor of support right now than her ceiling. At this point, I suspect, most of the likely voters who are open to being persuaded that Sarah Palin is unqualified to be vice president of the United States have already been persuaded. Though the McCain campaign did a great job of stifling the Katie Couric interview when it first began to air a week ago (though what they stifled it with was probably worse for them), it's continued to percolate for a week now, with new embarrassments--she reads "all" newspapers and magazines, she can only name one Supreme Court case--trickling out daily. Even voters who still haven't seen the Couric bits have probably read or heard about them.

I have little doubt that as a former sportscaster, she can make a few statements and soundbites tonight that can rally the base.

Continue reading "At Her Floor?" »

02 Oct 2008 01:34 pm

Confronting Racism Against Obama

A pretty amazing speech by the AFL-CIO's Richard Trumka. To see a white union man take on racism this way is very moving. Something truly profound could happen in this election, if we want it to:

02 Oct 2008 01:25 pm

A Sewer Of Self-Parody

Greenwald scoffs at this argument by Mark Levin:

The liberal uses crises, real or manufactured, to expand the power of government at the expense of the individual and private property. He has spent, in earnest, 70 years evading the Constitution's limits on governmental power. If conservatives don't stand up to this, who will? If they don't offer serious alternatives that address the current circumstances AND defend the founding principles, who will?

The idea, at this point, that Levin cares about the constitution is simply laughable.

02 Oct 2008 01:04 pm

The View From Your Window

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 10.30 am.