A reader writes:
Drum is both shrewd and correct. A bare Ahmadinejad win would have hidden the fraud. A bare Mousavi win would have been much better for the regime’s atomic bomb program, however. But they may have fatally overreached, like the Shah.
Remember when the Shah sent the Imperial Guard (“the Immortals”) into the streets, and they broke before the masses? We may be on the cusp of another legitimacy crisis here. Mousavi WAS the smarter choice for the regime: a smoother talker, talk of reform, while the centrifuges spin away and the bomb is built in secret. Meanwhle, the IAF’s Squadron 69 is kept on a tight leash by Obama lest the “moderate” President be undermined.
But no, apparently Khameinei is undermined by his own inner demons and past disagreements with Mousavi from the Revolutionary Days and the War Years. So, the urge to humiliate the Upstart overwhelmed Khameini.
Unless there is a popular uprising in favor of Mousavi and democratic legitimacy, the fascist coup will succeed. In that case, matters will be far worse. Bear this in mind: Hewitt and Krauthammer are correct.
If the coup d’etat is successful, the Israeli Defense Forces will have no choice but to act in the defense of the survival of the Jewish people and act to reduce the mortal danger to the State of Israel. Ali-Khameini and his stooge, Ahmadhi-Nejad and the Revolutionary Guards Corps clique are Islamic fascists, who will do anything to hang on to power. The Israeli Government cannot countenance such a group of people with deliverable Atomic Weapons. There will be war. Bet on this and take that bet to that bank.
It's too soon to game that far out, I suspect. But we have learned a lot about both Iran's potential for democracy and the regime's despicable tyranny. How we tackle that will require an enormous amount of skill and luck.