The graph showing the same proportion of votes throughout the night was zipping around the web this morning but I haven't the expertise or full data-set to confirm it. Again: anyone out there who can help? There is confirmation that Ahmadinejad's vote share was the same throughout the country, with very little regional variation. This would be unprecedented. Meanwhile, Juan Cole makes some very interesting points:
1. It is claimed that Ahmadinejad won the city of Tabriz with 57%. His main opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is an Azeri from Azerbaijan province, of which Tabriz is the capital. Mousavi, according to such polls as exist in Iran and widespread anecdotal evidence, did better in cities and is popular in Azerbaijan. Certainly, his rallies there were very well attended. So for an Azeri urban center to go so heavily for Ahmadinejad just makes no sense. In past elections, Azeris voted disproportionately for even minor presidential candidates who hailed from that province.
This is also odd:
The Electoral Commission is supposed to wait three days before certifying the results of the election, at which point they are to inform Khamenei of the results, and he signs off on the process. The three-day delay is intended to allow charges of irregularities to be adjudicated. In this case, Khamenei immediately approved the alleged results.
It feels like a coup to me. But we should wait for further confirmation of all these anecdotes and rumors and untranslated reports.
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