There's a growing discrepancy between reports of violence and conflict and arrests in the tweets and the general sense of stalling that one gets from the MSM right now. It's hard to know how to judge this. Obviously the tweets are partly pep-talks and partly propaganda; and obviously the MSM is shut out of much of Iran and cannot know for sure what's going on where it cannot go. So skepticism of both sources of information remains vital. With that in mind, here's an email sent to Norm Geras today that suggests that things have been worse than we have been led to believe. Much worse:
About your question: the situation is very dark unfortunately, however it does not mean that I am totally disappointed. In the lines below I will try to describe our condition...
The extent of brutalities on Bloody Saturday is still unknown to the world and even to the majority of Iranians. People all around the world have seen the scene of Neda Agha Soltan's murder, but many do not know that she has been one of tens of people who were killed brutally after Khamenei's threatenings in his Friday Prayer.
In fact several independent sources in Tehran hospitals and clinical centres have counted the dead from Saturday at over 150; yes more than 150. Doctors have been silenced from speaking about it. In fact when less than a week before (16 June) the doctors and nurses of Rasul Hospital in west Tehran witnessed 8 killed and 28 wounded from the day's demonstration, in their hospital, they came out on the street to inform people.
But on Bloody Saturday, the situation was totally different after Khamenei's command to slaughter demonstrators. I have a report just from one hospital not so far from my living place... In this hospital alone doctors received 20 dead and many other wounded. Security forces went to all the hospitals to which people themselves had brought the bodies, to gather all the wounded and dead; when paramilitary and military forces gathered the bodies, they sent them directly to military hospitals; they transmitted these bodies to their own centres too.
In an unbelievable event in the hospital, of which I have a report, security forces have shot and killed the wounded persons before transmitting them. When doctors and nurses bacame mad and went out on the streets, they have opened fire on them too. Now, we have reports that when families went to collect the bodies of their relatives, security forces have urged them to sign appeals against Mir Hossein Mousavi and named him as responsible for the deaths of their relatives. (The argument: they have participated in a demonstration which was related to Mousavi; the killers are 'unkown' but they will find them among Mousavi's supporters again!)
In the light of this situation, you can find how the society is shocked. However, people have not put resistance aside. Local demonstrations have continued, and at night people go on the roofs to chant slogans; 'Allah-o Akbar', 'Down with the Dictator' and so on. Even at night the Basiji militia go to some doors and threaten people not to chant slogans. Local strikes have been held too; in Iranian Kurdistan a strike was held yesterday. But in the absence of independent unions, it is hard to organize general strikes.
The coup d'etat regime is using all its means to suppress and exhaust people. The state of terror is trying to dominate. Whether they can win this unequal war against empty-handed people in this period or not, they will not be able to remain a stable regime. This time, they shed the blood of ordinary people who they claim to be their supporters - not just of some political activists.