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16 Aug 2009 06:36 pm
Will Iran Fail To Build A Bomb?
by Patrick Appel
Clive Thompson profiles Bueno de Mesquita, "one of the world’s most prominent applied game theorists," who applied game theory to Iran's nuclear program. His conclusion:
By early 2010, according to the forecast, Iran will be at the brink of
developing one, but then it will stop and go no further. If this
computer model is right, all the dire portents we’ve seen in recent
months — the brutal crackdown on protesters, the dubious confessions,
Khamenei’s accusations of American subterfuge — are masking a tectonic
shift. The moderates are winning, even if we cannot see that yet.
Let's hope his model is right, but I'm skeptical that these questions can be predicted by equations alone.
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