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08 Nov 2009 03:55 pm
The Global Baby Boom Slows
From The Economist's cover story (video here):
In principle, there are three ways of limiting human environmental
impacts: through population policy, technology and governance. The
first of those does not offer much scope. Population growth is already
slowing almost as fast as it naturally could. Easier access to family
planning, especially in Africa, could probably lower its expected peak
from around 9 billion to perhaps 8.5 billion. Only Chinese-style
coercion would bring it down much below that; and forcing poor people
to have fewer children than they want because the rich consume too many
of the world’s resources would be immoral.
If population policy can do little more to alleviate environmental
damage, then the human race will have to rely on technology and
governance to shift the world’s economy towards cleaner growth. Mankind
needs to develop more and cheaper technologies that can enable people
to enjoy the fruits of economic growth without destroying the planet’s
natural capital. That’s not going to happen unless governments both use
carbon pricing and other policies to encourage investment in those
technologies and constrain the damage that economic development does to
biodiversity.
Falling fertility may be making poor people’s lives better, but it cannot save the Earth. That lies in our own hands.
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