Tonight's Other Election

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03 Nov 2009 08:27 pm

CA-10 has gotten almost no attention because it is considered a safe Democratic seat, even though it has gone to a Republican much more recently than NY-23. Nate Silver gives odds:

I might take about a 15-1 flier on Harmer -- and if Republicans do win here, or perhaps even pull close enough that the outcome will be uncertain for several days as California finishes counting mail ballots, they'll really have something to crow about. With that said, I suspect that Garamendi will more likely than not win by larger than the 10-point margin that SurveyUSA projects. By the way, this race is not without upside to the Democrats, as Garamendi should be significantly more liberal than Tauscher, who has not always been a reliable vote for her party on issues like national security.

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