Archive
June 7, 2009 - June 13, 2009
Saturday, June 13, 200913 Jun 2009 11:33 pm Know Hope
Scroll down for full coverage of the day's historic events in Iran. Back tomorrow. Keep me posted overnight. And thanks to all the Farsi readers. 13 Jun 2009 11:01 pm That Graph AgainA reader writes:
I'm with Nate Silver on this one. I plotted the 2008 presidential
election results with each data point representing a poll-closing time
(7PM EST, 7:30PM, etc.), to give a better idea than Nate's analysis of
results over time. Doing this using the electoral vote count, I got an
R-squared of 0.95, which is already very high. I suspected that doing
it using the popular vote, given its more granular nature, would yield
a higher value. And so it does. See the graph below (Obama votes on
the bottom, McCain votes on the right), with a basically perfect
correlation of 1. As Nate says, this doesn't disprove fraud (or the
compelling nature of the election, come to that); it only shows that
the graph does not prove fraud.
Continue reading "That Graph Again" » 13 Jun 2009 10:47 pm The Blogosphere's MomentA reader writes: So all day long, I'm glued to your blog, Juan Cole's blog, Josh
Marshall's blog, and a couple others reading as much as I can about the
(stolen) Iranian election. I turned on CNN, and they were going three rounds about some idiot Republican operative in South Carolina who called Michelle Obama an ape. Nothing on Iran. MSNBC was in the middle of one of its hour-long crime documentaries. FNC was showing a pre-taped piece on Bernie Madoff. And I realize that it's the weekend and they usually take the weekend off, but over at NRO, the only thing they've managed to post about Iran today is a link to Daniel Pipes' piece cheering on an Ahmadinejad victory because otherwise his dream of a massive Israeli air assault would be dashed. That's it...a staff of 10+ regular bloggers, and all they can come up with in the midst of an Iranian revolution is a single piece cheering for the status quo? Thank God that you, Juan, and Josh are on the story.
13 Jun 2009 09:49 pm The Second Revolution?From Tehran Bureau's report on the protests: I approached an elderly gentleman who seemed riveted, but disgusted by the scene in the street in front of him. “I’ve seen violence like this before,” he remarked, “What can one expect when you disrespect the people. This is a coup d’etat. After blatantly cheating the people they won’t be able to turn this off.” 13 Jun 2009 09:37 pm Iran's Tiananmen?JPod: If this is Tiananmen II, and the regime crushes it, there will be no
easy approach to regime change. And there will be no pretending any
longer that Iran’s regime isn’t a unified, hardline, irridentist, and
enormously dangerous one.
Can we not understand that at this point, at least, this is about them, not us? 13 Jun 2009 08:38 pm The MSM Drops The BallThe US media has been horrible in its coverage of the elections and its
aftermath. NPR had more coverage of the European soccer last night and
of the Stanley Cup this morning. It was evening in Tehran before
Amanpour did a short piece for CNN. Even Keith Olbermann had a sleepy
dude from the New America Foundation on … without even bothering to
explain what his credentials as an Iran expert are. With an estimated
750k Iranians living in the US and several major academic organizations
devoted to Iranian Studies, the unwillingness and inability of the US
media to cover these elections properly is truly indicative of a larger
problem in Irano-US relations. US press coverage has been embarrassing
and shameful.
13 Jun 2009 08:23 pm Was It A Military Coup?That is what this Tehran Bureau report suggests. Brian Ulrich thinks this makes sense: A coup that originated with the military rather than the clerical or lay political leaders resolves what I saw the the main flaw with Juan Cole's reconstruction.
It also dovetails well with Interior Ministry employees' warnings that
Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi, who is influential in the military, issued a fatwa authorizing manipulation of the elections. A
coup led by the military is also easier to explain than one ordered by
Ayatollah Khamene'i. I had been thinking about the implications of a
Mousavi victory, and concluded that, given the continuing conservative
dominance of Parliament, the most important changes for Iranians would
be a different economic policy and the replacement of someone hostile
to the old revolutionary establishment embodied by the likes of
Rafsanjani with someone who was actually a part of it.
13 Jun 2009 08:16 pm "This Is Just The Beginning Of The Story"
A Farsi speaking Dish reader translates the formal statements of the two leading opposition candidates:
Know hope. 13 Jun 2009 07:51 pm In Custody Or House ArrestFrom what I can glean, the thugs have now detained Mousavi, Karroubi, Karbaschi and Khatami's brother. 13 Jun 2009 07:44 pm What Is The US To Do?wants Obama to act: Barack Obama should give another speech. Soon, maybe tomorrow. He
should address this one to the people of Iran, whose eagerness for a
political voice – a real political voice – is obvious in the
photographs and reports from the streets of Tehran in the last 24
hours. No! That is the last thing he should do. He should stay out of this as much as possible. This is not about us. It's about them. And any interference would only backfire to the regime's advantage. Mercifully, Ackerman is more cautious:
Continue reading "What Is The US To Do?" » 13 Jun 2009 07:42 pm The Mullahs' Last Stand?
Continue reading "The Mullahs' Last Stand?" » 13 Jun 2009 07:14 pm The Revolution Will Be TwitteredMock not. As the regime shut down other forms of communication, Twitter survived. With some remarkable results. Those rooftop chants that were becoming deafening in Tehran? A few hours ago, this concept of resistance was spread by a twitter message. Here's the Twitter from a Moussavi supporter: ALL internet & mobile networks are cut. We ask everyone in Tehran to go onto their rooftops and shout ALAHO AKBAR in protest #IranElection That a new information technology could be improvised for this purpose so swiftly is a sign of the times. It reveals in Iran what the Obama campaign revealed in the United States. You cannot stop people any longer. You cannot control them any longer. They can bypass your established media; they can broadcast to one another; they can organize as never before. It's increasingly clear that Ahmadinejad and the old guard mullahs were caught off-guard by this technology and how it helped galvanize the opposition movement in the last few weeks. That's why they didn't see what those of us surgically attached to modems could spot a mile away: something was happening in Iran. If Drum is right, the mullahs believed their own propaganda about victory until reality hit them so hard so fast, they miscalculated badly and over-reached. The key force behind this is the next generation, the Millennials, who elected Obama in America and may oust Ahmadinejad in Iran. They want freedom; they are sick of lies; they enjoy life and know hope. This generation will determine if the world can avoid the apocalypse that will come if the fear-ridden establishments continue to dominate global politics, motivated by terror, armed with nukes, and playing old but now far too dangerous games. This generation will not bypass existing institutions and methods: look at the record turnout in Iran and the massive mobilization of the young and minority vote in the US. But they will use technology to displace old modes and orders. Maybe this revolt will be crushed. But even if it is, the genie has escaped this Islamist bottle. Maybe that's what we're hearing on the rooftops of Tehran: the sound of the next revolution. Allah O Akbar! 13 Jun 2009 06:51 pm Two Young Men In Black And Green
A reader writes: I live in Berkeley and have a lot of Iranian friends in the
community here. In 2002 my husband and I went to Iran spending time in
Tehran, Shiraz and Esfahan. I feel incredibly lucky to have traveled
there and for the perspective I gained on a horribly misunderstood
country and people. Through my friends and time spent in Iran, I feel
connected to the culture. I'm reading the post-election coverage with
tears in my eyes, imagining the disappointment of the people.
The picture of the two young men, one in a green t-shirt, the other a riot policeman sent me over the top - it portrays two young men united by their lack of freedom and the strong spirit of love that is part of the culture. That is why this regime is will not last much longer. Thank you for seeing the tremendous importance and power of this story. 13 Jun 2009 06:46 pm Something Is Happening In IranA HuffPost reader writes: "My next door neighbor is an Iranian immigrant who came here in 1977. He just received a SAT phone call from his brother in Tehran who reports that the rooftops of nighttime Tehran are filled with people shouting 'Allah O Akbar' in protest of the government and election results. The last time he remembers this happening is in 1979 during the Revolution. Says the sound of tens of thousands on the rooftops is deafening right now."
13 Jun 2009 06:40 pm The View From Your Window
Fairfax, Virginia, 6.15 am 13 Jun 2009 06:35 pm Those Outside IranThe International Campaign For Human Rights In Iran wants the international community to withhold recognition of the Iranian presidential election results. Ackerman, along the same lines: Can the White House's understandable caution really withstand a
campaign of popular suppression by the Iranian regime? It's foolish to
think that Moussavi's supporters are looking outside for support. And
it's irresponsible for the U.S. to do anything that would exacerbate
civil tensions within Iran, which has a long, bitter memory of American
interference. But rhetorical encouragement from the international
community in the face of what may become an uglier moment might seed
the bed for a productive relationship with the Iran that is evidently
trying to be born.
13 Jun 2009 05:13 pm Because They Panicked
A reader writes:
Continue reading "Because They Panicked" » 13 Jun 2009 05:07 pm "Where The Last Revolution Started"
A reader writes: I have been reading some of the links that you have posted that are in
Farsi. I don't know how accurate pyknet is as a source, but based on
what they have posted there is a lot of chaos. Apparently they
arrested Mousavi as he was headed to Khamenei's residence when his
request for communications went unanswered. The Basij wrote about the
observers in Mashahd and Qom, both religious centers with holy sites,
being a majority of religious students and mullahs as opposed to
regular government bureaucrats who have worked the polls in the past.
They claim this is unprecedented in the 30 years, even in those
cities. This same source says that the day before the elections, the mullah/students of Qom got calls insisting they go to the holy sites and mosques to protest against Rafsanjani and Mousavi along with their wives and children-many of them resisted and had to somehow be coerced into participation. Continue reading ""Where The Last Revolution Started"" » 13 Jun 2009 05:01 pm Could Nate Be Wrong?There's some pushback on his interpretation of the Iranian vote statistics. Check his comments thread. Maybe he'll respond. As one reader points out: The problem with Nate's analysis of the Iranian election plot is that he split the states effectively randomly (by alphabetical order). The results as they were released in Iran were not released in such a random way. The "waves" that he describes were regional. You would not see that sort of a straight line if you were to split the waves into geographic regions the way that they should. Also, he didn't address your question about the precedent for such a high turnout and such walloping by the incumbent candidate. 13 Jun 2009 04:52 pm And The Congratulations Pour In
Following President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s landslide victory in the 10th Presidential Elections, Syrian, Egyptian and Palestinian leaders cabled messages of congratulation on Saturday on his re-election.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Leader of Egyptian Ikhwan al-Muslimin Mohammad-Mehdi Akef, Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), and Palestinian Islamic Jihad Movement in separate messages congratulated President Ahmadinejad on his victory. They wished him success and prosperity.
13 Jun 2009 04:51 pm “I feel like I went to sleep in one country and woke up in another.”From Britain's superb Channel 4: (Hat tip: the Lede.) 13 Jun 2009 04:30 pm Silver Weighs In On The GraphIt's accurate but doesn't prove what it seems to prove to the amateur eye. Read the whole thing. Money quote from a comparison with the last US election: Ignoring votes for minor candidates, Ahmadinejad won a
high of 70.4 percent of the votes in Wave 1, and a low of 62.3 percent
in the votes newly added in Wave 6. By comparison, Obama's share of the
newly-added votes in our experiment ranged from 56.4 percent in Wave 3
to 44.7 percent in Wave 4. That's slightly more variance than we saw in
the Iranian results but not much. To be clear, these results certainly do not prove that Iran's election was clean. I have no particular reason to believe the results reported by the Interior Ministry. But I also don't have any particular reason to disbelieve them, at least based on the statistical evidence. If Mousavi truly did have the support of a majority of Iran's citizenry, the best evidence we will have of that is what happens in the streets of Tehran over the next days and weeks.
13 Jun 2009 04:26 pm Follow-Up On Earlier PostsYes, the president of Iran's own election monitoring commission has declared the result invalid and called for a do-over. That is huge news: when a regime's own electoral monitors beak ranks, what chance does the regime have of persuading anyone in the world or Iran that it has democratic legitimacy? Second: Stratfor is reporting that Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, head of the Expediency Council, has resigned. Though unconfirmed, the report is saying that Rafsanjani is
resigning from his position as head of the Expediencey Council, NOT his
position as the leader of the Assembly of Experts, which has oversight
responsibility over the office of the Supreme Leader and would be
responsible for naming Ayatollah Khamenei’s successor.
13 Jun 2009 04:20 pm Mental Health BreakMaking Wookie?
13 Jun 2009 04:11 pm The CoupA reader writes:
I talked to my brother who is in Tehran a couple of hours ago. YouTube
is apparently down (filtered). The satellite TV and international radio
stations (SW) are also jammed. But apparently a VOA satellite TV station has started to broadcast on a
new frequency and so they have access to that. They had also lost the
cell-phone service. (The phone system is operated by the Ministry of
Technology and Communications; so it is state run.) It really is feeling like a coup.
13 Jun 2009 04:08 pm A Source For The Graph, CtdLooks like it was made by Tehran Bureau, which has lots of other election coverage. Their analysis: Statistically and mathematically, it is impossible to maintain such
perfect linear relations between the votes of any two candidates in any
election — and at all stages of vote counting. This is particularly
true about Iran, a large country with a variety of ethnic groups who
usually vote for a candidate who is ethnically one of their own. For
example, in the present elections, Mr. Mousavi is an Azeri and speaks
Turkish. The Azeries make up 1/4 of all the eligible voters in Iran and
in his trips to Azerbaijan province, where most of the Azeri population
lives, Mr. Mousavi had been greeted by huge rallies in support of his
campaign. Likewise, Mr. Karroubi, the other reformist candidate, is a
Lor. But according to the data released by Iran’s Interior Ministry, in
both cases, Mr. Ahmadinejad has far outdone both candidates in their
own provinces of birth and among their own ethnic populations.
13 Jun 2009 04:02 pm It's SpreadingA Farsi-speaking reader writes: Radio Farda (Radio Free Europe) reported a few minutes ago in Persian:
-- Shiraz: students at the University of Shiraz have taken all of the Ahmadinejad campaign posters and burned them at the dormitory grounds. The students are now clashing with the police. --Zahedan: students are clashing with police this evening. --Karaj -- protesters are clashing with police this evening. In each location the police have reacted in a heavy-handed manner. Video of brutal police beatings in the streets after the jump from the BBC. Disturbing:
Continue reading "It's Spreading" » 13 Jun 2009 04:00 pm To My Farsi Speaking ReadersHere's is Moussavi's Facebook page. Keep me posted if you find anything there that's newsworthy. 13 Jun 2009 03:56 pm A Hewitt-Sullivan AllianceThe times demand it. Hewitt calls on the media to pick up the story: If the Iranian people have the courage of the electorates in Ukraine,
Lebanon and Philippines, this could be the week that the three decades
of Islamist terror export begins to unravel. All of western media
should be focusing every resource at its disposal on the election fraud
and Khamenei's and Ahmadinejad's resort to brutal thuggery against the
Iranian people. At Denver's airport this morning I was amazed that
coverage was at a minimum on CNN. Like the revolutions of 1989 in
Europe, the next few days could have enormous consequences for the
world for decades to come. Hugh and I can join forces on this one. This is an immense story of human freedom in a critical part of the world. After Obama's election, it is the biggest event in world history this year. And letting these courageous protestors know that we are with them is vital. Telling the world of their integrity and bravery against the thuggery of these theocratic despots is God's work. The blogosphere can lead the way, but the MSM is catching on. The NYT's Lede blog has been excellent. 13 Jun 2009 03:47 pm A Source For The GraphIt's from Iran's Entekhab News. Here's the graph as it first appeared in Farsi (and the accompanying piece). It shows how the proportion of Ahmadinejad's victory remained totally stable through every vote update through the night. Some statistician could probably figure out the odds of that happening in Iran - or anywhere else, for that matter. I'm so grateful to the many Farsi-readers who are helping me stay on top of these developments. The Dish readership is a powerful tool:
13 Jun 2009 03:42 pm Creepiest Quote Of The Day"The 12 June election was an artistic expression of the nation, which created a new advancement in the history of elections in the country. The over 80 percent participation of the people and the 24 million votes cast for the president-elect is a real celebration which with the power of almighty God can guarantee the development, progress, national security, and the joy and excitement of the nation," - Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khameini. 13 Jun 2009 03:36 pm How To Tell Who The Good Guys AreThey"re the ones who sometimes rescue a beleaguered riot policeman:
13 Jun 2009 03:34 pm The Turnout And The MarginThis is Nate Silver-bait. But an Iranian-American reader asks a good question. Under what circumstances with a turnout of 85 percent do landslides for incumbents happen, as the regime claims in Iran? Are there any precedents for this in electoral history? One way of tackling the question of fraud is simply probability. How many election results in history have never varied from region to region or from the beginning of the count to the end? Does this result have any serious precedents? Or is it as self-evidently rigged as it increasingly seems? 13 Jun 2009 03:25 pm Some Mullahs Urge A Nullification
That's the latest conveyed to me by my Farsi-speaking readers scanning the Persian blogosphere. In my translator's words: A
committee of respected Ayatollahs (the spiritual fighters) have
requested that the election be invalidated for the purpose of restoring
the people’s trust in the Islamic Republic. We request the people to
stay calm and not to provoke the government agents.
The regime is cracking open a little. (Photo: Olivier Laban-Mattei/AFP/Getty.) 13 Jun 2009 03:19 pm A Crack Within The Ministry Of The Interior?Fascinating development claimed by Moussavi's website: an open letter from a group of Interior Ministry employees to the chairman of the Assembly of Experts, the President, the of Majlis of Iran, the heads of the legislative and judicial branch and several other government agencies:
“As dedicated employees of the Interior Ministry, with experience in management and supervision of several elections such as the elections of Khamenei, Rafsanjani and Khatami, we announce that we fear the 10th presidential elections were not healthy.”
13 Jun 2009 03:16 pm The GraphConfirmation from al Jazeera:
And with each updated count, Ahmadinjad's lead did not waver from a
very stable range of 66-69 per cent, irrespective of which districts
were reporting.
13 Jun 2009 03:10 pm Why Give Ahmadinejad Two-Thirds Of The Vote?Drum has some smart thoughts:
Continue reading "Why Give Ahmadinejad Two-Thirds Of The Vote?" » 13 Jun 2009 03:04 pm "If Iran Sleeps Tonight, It Will Sleep Forever”Hamid Tehrani at Global Voices has a round up of protest videos and election reaction in the Persian blogosphere. He also links to a cartoon by " Nikahang Kosar, Iranian leading cartoonist and blogger," seen below (NSFW):
13 Jun 2009 02:59 pm Agatha ColeHe reconstructs the crime scene: As the real numbers started coming into the Interior Ministry late on Friday, it became clear that Mousavi was winning. Mousavi's spokesman abroad, filmmaker Mohsen Makhbalbaf, alleges that the ministry even contacted Mousavi's camp and said it would begin preparing the population for this victory. Continue reading "Agatha Cole" » 13 Jun 2009 02:53 pm 50 - 100 Now Dead?That's what Tehranbureau is reporting as Iran hits midnight. Police on motorbikes are beating people randomly in the streets. This video reveals the violence and terror from the regime. 13 Jun 2009 02:48 pm Why Did The Mullahs Panic?A reader writes: Why
did the clergy panic? Because they saw something much larger than just
Mousavi being elected. They saw the beginnings of a wave that would
sweep them out of power. This started with Khatami. and it won't stop
today just because they declared a fraudulent winner. Mousavi would
have been the crowbar with which to pry open the tangled nest of
corruption that came into power soon after the 1979 revolution. There
is enough pent-up anger in Iran's youth to fuel a complete wipeout of
the regime. If the thugs were so utterly ham-fisted in their attempt
to usurp power, they surely will commit scores of idiotic errors in the
days to come. I cannot imagine Rafsanjani staying quiet for much
longer; the theocracy is about to break wide open. Resistance will
take many forms, and now will not stop until the mullahs are
permanently out of power. Iran is headed for civil war.
13 Jun 2009 02:45 pm Translation ConfirmedA Farsi speaking military reader confirms the post here, perhaps the most important aspect of which was that Iran's own election monitors have allegedly declared the election a fraud. 13 Jun 2009 02:42 pm The Revolution Will Be Twittered?Apparently, it's the only communication device that is still working in Tehran. But YouTube is still providing images of an insurrection:13 Jun 2009 02:32 pm More Reports Of Moussavi's ArrestFrom NIAC:
13 Jun 2009 02:31 pm Freedom! Freedom!
The BBC has disturbing video of protestors being beaten, and here are images of the protests on Flickr, which is where the above picture is taken from. The NYT's Lede blog has a good round-up of the news coming out of Iran, and, via Insta, another video of Iran protesters. One of the comments says that the protesters are chanting, "Freedom, Freedom, Freedom, Death with this Government." Can someone who speaks the language please verify that? 13 Jun 2009 02:28 pm Murkier And Murkier
From the indispensable Laura Rozen:
(Photo: A supporter of defeated Iranian presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi shouts slogans during riots in Tehran on June 13, 2009. By Olivier Laban-Mattei/AFP/Getty.) 13 Jun 2009 02:14 pm Evidence Of FraudThe graph showing the same proportion of votes throughout the night was zipping around the web this morning but I haven't the expertise or full data-set to confirm it. Again: anyone out there who can help? There is confirmation that Ahmadinejad's vote share was the same throughout the country, with very little regional variation. This would be unprecedented. Meanwhile, Juan Cole makes some very interesting points: 1. It is claimed that Ahmadinejad won the city of Tabriz with 57%.
His main opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is an Azeri from Azerbaijan
province, of which Tabriz is the capital. Mousavi, according to such
polls as exist in Iran and widespread anecdotal evidence, did better in
cities and is popular in Azerbaijan. Certainly, his rallies there were very well attended. So for an Azeri urban center to go so heavily for Ahmadinejad just makes no sense. In past elections, Azeris voted disproportionately for even minor presidential candidates who hailed from that province. This is also odd: The Electoral Commission is supposed to wait three days before
certifying the results of the election, at which point they are to
inform Khamenei of the results, and he signs off on the process. The
three-day delay is intended to allow charges of irregularities to be
adjudicated. In this case, Khamenei immediately approved the alleged
results. It feels like a coup to me. But we should wait for further confirmation of all these anecdotes and rumors and untranslated reports. 13 Jun 2009 02:04 pm Quote For The Day IIIFrom Bill Keller's report from Tehran:
“They didn’t rig the vote,” claimed this man, who showed his ministry identification card but pleaded not to be named. “They didn’t even look at the vote. They just wrote the name and put the number in front of it.”
13 Jun 2009 01:59 pm Brutality In The Streets
From the must-read live-blog at niacINsight, more first hand reports:
Continue reading "Brutality In The Streets" » 13 Jun 2009 01:54 pm A Bleg For Farsi ReadersOne of my readers has forwarded this report that Moussavi has been put under house arrest and that Rafsanjani has resigned or been detained. There's also a report that Sianat az ara, the election monitors who are approved by all the candidates, have also declared the result a fraud. I don't read Farsi so if anyone can confirm this reader's news, I'd be grateful. As of now, I am not reporting this, just asking. I find nothing of this sort on the English wires. If it's true, obviously this moment is spiraling into something bigger. Will try to nail it down.
June 7, 2009 - June 13, 2009
|
Obama, TrimmerThe Morning AfterLeaving The RightBitter And AfraidHow's That Iraqi Surge Faring Now, General?
Andrew SullivanAndrew's Bio | E-Mail AndrewDish PrepPatrick AppelChris Bodenner The View From Your Window Book A Speaking Engagement Add this RSS Feed 
Site Meter 
Intimations Pursued: The Voice of Practice in the Conversation of Michael Oakeshott 
|
Copyright © Andrew Sullivan. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited. TheAtlantic.com