Drum thinks that repealing DADT will be difficult:
[E]ven after 15 years to get used to the idea, even with public opinion strongly in favor, even with the military itself slowly getting accustomed to the inevitable, this is going to be a pitched battle. And as with healthcare reform, although Obama's support will be important, it won't be decisive. What's really going to matter is whether 218 representatives and 51 senators are willing to support it. (That's assuming it gets tacked onto the defense appropriation bill, which is passed under reconciliation rules.)
So we will fight. A good place to review the evidence for whether the current cruel, discriminatory and unproductive policy is working can be found here in Nathaniel Frank's latest missive:
Senator McCain and Representative Boehner think discrimination is working well in the military. And if discrimination is their goal, they have a point. But this hardly means “don’t ask, don’t tell” is a success. My twelve years of research on this policy show it’s a colossal failure that’s had the opposite of its intended effect.
“Don’t ask, don’t tell” was supposed to make sexual orientation a non-issue so gays could serve discreetly while protecting privacy and cohesion, and sparing our military the unaffordable loss of essential talent. Instead, it has:
wasted thousands of essential personnel, including Arabic speakers, and filled those slots with ex-convicts and drug abusers struck at the heart of unit cohesion by breaking apart cohesive fighting teams, and undermining trust, integrity, and honesty among soldiers
hamstrung tens of thousands of gay, lesbian, and bisexual soldiers from doing their jobs by limiting their access to support services that are essential to morale and readiness invaded the privacy of all service members by casting a cloud of suspicion and uncertainty over the intimate lives of everyone in the armed forces
cost the American taxpayer hundreds of millions of dollars In this climate, it’s no wonder that rumor and innuendo have led to witch hunts that have meant yanking gay soldiers from their units, even when they have followed the law and policy. The military itself knows the policy doesn’t work, as evidenced by the declining discharge figures now that America is at warclearly commanders on the ground are ignoring a policy which is not serving them well.
The idea that “don’t ask, don’t tell” is a success reflects a profound detachment from the reality on the ground. By every possible measure, it’s been a costly failure.
It appears that Gates and Mullen understand this. But one worries that the irrational and fundamentalist forces in the GOP will try to swamp reason with fear once again.