Well, we'll soon see whether the Rasmussen model can predict a Senate race. That's different, of course, than providing insight into general public opinion - and Rasmussens model excludes that kind of polling, focusing on what Rasmussen, a Republican outfit, thinks are the key voters: white, older Republicans and Independents. Weigel explains the base dynamics. Ben Smith tries to sound open-minded about Rasmussen. But the phenomenon of a polling outfit playing a key role in shaping anti-Obama stories in the blogosphere and MSM, generating base enthusiasm, and being embraced as the real reality of American politics is an interesting dynamic.
I don't buy the idea that Rasmussen represents how the country is thinking as a whole. But I'm an agnostic on whether it really does show what will happen at the polls in mid-terms or small turnout special races. This is a pretty good test of that, no?