[The unemployment rate] rose last month because of a something of a statistical quirk. The Labor Department counts people as officially unemployed only if they are not working and looking for work. Between March and April, there was a surge in the number of out-of-work people who started looked for work. That not job losses is what swelled the ranks of the officially jobless and caused the unemployment rate to rise to 9.9 percent, from 9.7 percent.
Daniel Indiviglio adds:
If this report tells us anything, then it says we shouldn't expect a significant drop in the rate this month either, as the seasonally adjusted rate tends to remain above the unadjusted rate in May. But when summer hits, we'll likely see the rate decline again to 9.7% or less -- assuming job growth continues the current trend.
(Image: Calculated Risk)