SurveyUSA's final poll isn't pretty:
“No” has 46%, “Yes” has 44% at the wire, unchanged from SurveyUSA’s penultimate poll 1 week ago, and still within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Yet: momentum is with “No.”Among voters interviewed by SurveyUSA on their home telephones, 19 is opposed 53% to 43%. Among voters who do not have a home phone and who were interviewed on their cellphones, 19 is supported almost 2:1. When the groups are proportionally blended, opposition slightly outweighs support.
Arguing against passage is this: among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, 19 is opposed 57% to 39%. Support is strongest among those who have not yet voted and who, ultimately, may or may not. In SurveyUSA’s 1st tracking poll on marijuana, 4 months ago, women supported 19 by 7 points. On election eve, women oppose 51% to 40%. In the Bay Area, “Yes” led by 30 points a month ago, now is tied. Voters are split in all regions of the state now. Democrats supported by 30 points in August, but now by only 10.